TFT Issue 46!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Double chance
1X:
Estudiantes De La Plata
Brisbane Roar
CSKA Sofia
Universidad Catolica
Atletico Junior Barranquilla
Anorthosis Famagusta
Jablonec
Liga de Quito
Manchester City
Paris Saint-Germain
LOSC Lille
Energie Cottbus
AC Milan
Twente Enschede
Feyenoord Rotterdam
Olimpia Asuncion
SL Benfica
Poli Timisoara
Rangers
Lugano
Biel-Bienne
Fenerbahce
Dynamo Kiev
Caracas
Featured game
Dynamo Kiev vs Vorskla Poltava – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I’ve waxed lyrical about Dynamo Kiev under Yury Semin before and I intend to do more of the same today!
Considering that Dynamo Kiev have had a poor half-a-season without the talented Russian manager, they’ve still been presentable at home with seven wins in ten home games, averaging scoring over two goals per home game. Now that Semin has returned, however, Kiev look simply fantastic. They’ve bagged twelve times in four games and are attacking as if they’re the best side in the world. Confidence is oozing from every player and competition is fierce as Kiev have great strength in-depth. Indeed, the super Olexandr Aliev followed mentor Semin back to Kiev from their sojourn at Lokomotiv Moscow but even Aliev is going to find it hard to get his place back in the team, given how well they’re playing. They won 2-0 against Manchester City mid-week and to be honest, it could have been worse for the English side with Kiev finding a lot of openings in that game. Kiev are currently the most potent attacking unit in Ukraine, for my money, and that makes them a very dangerous opponent, especially with such confidence ebbing throughout their team.
Vorskla Poltava have every right to be very afraid ahead of this game. Not only have Kiev not conceded a goal for three consecutive games in all competitions but Vorskla have lost their last three visits to Kiev consecutively so it looks bleak for them here. They’re a fairly uninteresting defensive unit although to their credit, they are usually quite good at defending. Vorskla have only kept three clean sheets on the road this season and two of those were against newly-promoted sides (Volyn Lutsk and Sevastopol respectively) with the other being little Obolon Kiev so it’s safe to say that Vorskla will concede here. You could point to Vorskla’s 1-0 defeat at the Donbass Arena and question if the same will happen here, which is very true – it could happen. However, I’d counter that with the fact that Shakhtar find nothing harder in football than to break through defensive sides with men behind the ball and that Kiev are absolutely on fire at the moment with innumerate options in attack so for me, this is a very different game.
For me, Dynamo Kiev are going to win this game easily. The amount of goals that they score should be dictated by how early they score with anything between 2-0 and 4-0 a possibility here, in my view. Backing Dynamo Kiev to beat the -1.5 goal handicap with their immense defensive displays and incisive finishing of late at decent odds of 4/5 looks a bargain to me.
Verdict: Dynamo Kiev to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Esbjerg vs Randers – away win at 11/8.
Six defeats in ten home games in the Superligaen so far this season says that Esbjerg are looking very likely to be playing football in the division below next season and based on the display they showed last match, it’s almost a guarantee that they will be. You’d have expected Esbjerg to have picked it up over the winter break and started trying to push away from the drop zone but they were so lifeless and ineffectual against SonderjyskE that it’s hard to see them getting anything from any game. No Superligaen side has conceded more goals at home than they have this season with an average of nearly two goals conceded per home game and with midfielder Jorgensen having left to play for AA Gent over the winter break, it’s hard to see Esbjerg having the quality to stay in this division.
Statistically speaking, you’d be entitled to question this bet as Randers are only a few points ahead of Esbjerg in the Superligaen table and as they’ve failed to win any of their ten away games thus far, drawing seven times and losing three times. However, from a quality perspective, Randers are a much better team than Esbjerg – they simply lacked goals. They defend very well indeed but not scoring goals means not winning games, hence them drawing a lot of games. However, they decided to solve that particular bugbear over the winter break by bringing in a lot of new players. Old hand Soren Berg left to join AGF Aarhus so Randers brought in experienced and talented Kristensen from Midtylland, pacey Fejzullahu from NEC Nijmegen, tenacious Lyngby striker Rise, and even midfield engine Jaiteh from Brann Bergen over the past few days. Randers are still a side that is good enough to be competing for European places in the Superligaen, in my view – they just need the breaks and the goals, the latter of which should now be resolved. Randers demonstrated just what they’re capable of doing last match by destroying Nordsjaelland 4-0 and I can only see them going from strength to strength in the latter stages of their campaign due to their astute transfer market activities.
For me, Randers have a very good chance of winning this game. Their league placing isn’t really reflective of their ability and given the momentum that they bring into this game versus the abject displays of Esbjerg, backing Randers to win their first away game of the season at 11/8 appeals to me here.
Verdict: Randers to win at 11/8.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Polonia Warsaw – over 2.5 goals at 7/5.
A 5-1 crushing at Gornik Zabrze last match has dampened Zaglebie spirits and with Bartczak missing this game, their defensive record is unlikely to improve. Offensively speaking, Zaglebie do tend to score at least one token goal and with the relegation zone dangerously near now, they really need to push themselves to get away from the drop zone so may need to abandon their fairly cautious styling for this match. However, they’re hosting a superior Polonia Warsaw side so they’ll have mixed emotions here. On one hand, they’re facing a side that isn’t playing consistently well so they’ll be pleased on that front. However, Polonia Warsaw boast a team of players that would stroll into Zaglebie’s team and that will concern them here, especially after newly-promoted Gornik Zabrze destroyed them last match. To make matters worse for the hosts, Polonia Warsaw have had “the talk” from nutcase owner Wojciechowski. This guy has no patience for anything and frequently sacks managers for no reason so new manager Theo Bos is already feeling the pressure. Wojciechowski had a chat with him and the team on friday to basically say “Play better or fuck off” and his motivational tricks usually work as he doesn’t fuck around.
Therefore, we have a bit of a conundrum here. Polonia have enough firepower to win this game comfortably but I’m not touching the 1×2 market for this one, especially as Zaglebie have just appointed experienced Ekstraklasa manager Jan Urban as their new manager and this could well be their “honeymoon period”. However, what does seem likely is that we’ll see goals here so for me, taking over 2.5 goals at a generous price of 7/5 appeals here.
Team news – Zaglebie Lubin miss Bartczak, Forenc, and Osmanagic whereas Polonia Warsaw miss Andreu and Mynar.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Nieciecza vs Bogdanka Leczna – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Newly-promoted Nieciecza are finding it hard to stay in Liga 1 as they’re not making the most of their home advantage whatsoever. They’ve already lost five out of nine on their own turf this season and although they don’t concede many goals, they don’t score many either. I’m not sure if you can attribute that to Nieciecza being a poor side or the atrocious swamp-like pitch that they play on but either way, the hosts are not a particularly good side and tend to struggle in most of their games, just as they did during the 0-1 defeat against Warta Poznan last match.
To make matters worse for the hosts, they miss defenders Tupalski and Mysona for this game and that’s the last thing that this defensively-orientated side require at the moment, given their precarious Liga 1 placing. This benefits visitors Bogdanka Leczna immensely and I think they’ll make the most of it today. They played out a scrappy but important 1-0 victory against Gornik Polkowice last match as they seek to push away from the drop zone. Due to the change in owner over the transfer window, Bogdanka are now the wealthiest side in the division so it’s no surprise at all that they’ve signed virtually an entire new midfield with Nowak and Kaczmarek joining from Korona Kielce and Sasin joining from Cracovia Krakow, not to mention Brazilian attacker Ricardinho joining from Mogi Mirim. I don’t know how long it’ll take but the visitors have every chance of being a force in this division very soon and let’s face it – they have the perfect opponent to trial their new players upon today with the hosts generally failing to score goals and missing defenders so we should see an interesting game here.
With draw no bet cover, I cannot help but look favourably at the away win here. Bogdanka now have an unquestionably superior team to their hosts and with their hosts missing important players here, Bogdanka have a very good chance to win this game, in my view. The pitch could be a problem but that’s why I’ve incorporated the draw no bet cover as I really don’t see a home win occurring in this game. With the above in mind, the away win with draw no bet cover at 11/10 appeals to me here.
Team news – Nieciecza miss Hajduch, Tupalski, and Mysona whereas Bogdanka Leczna have doubts over Ricardinho.
Verdict: Bogdanka Leczna to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
The bin
Ermis vs Alki Larnaca – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Important game for both sides; Alki are playing really well, scoring and conceding goals. Ermis rarely go over 2.5 goals at home but Alki are really going to test that today so I do like over 2.5 goals. However, Ermis’ resilience has put me off so I’m going to avoid it today.
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan – away win at 11/10.
Cracovia’s results of late flatter them and I was dead set to go against them with an efficient and talented Lech Poznan side but Lech are decimated with the flu at the moment and have doubts over just about everyone in their team so I’m going to skip this one.