TFT Issue 462!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Serie A Thoughts
Ok gents, this round looks an absolute nightmare so the best of luck to you! I’ll give you my thoughts below if you’re adamant about betting in Brazil tonight anyway.
Ponte Preta are overrated at home but Sport Recife are a bit weak on the road. Ponte Preta could and should nick it but at those odds? It’s just not worth it. This is a very tight game and involves two sides that will be in the relegation battle and after a lot of games in a short space of time, these two thin squads will be tired. Cards are possible but the 1×2 is a no go. Figueirense are good enough at home to trouble a rather unpredictable Internacional side under their new boss. The majority of their talented attacking players are still out but they demonstrated against Atletico Goianiense in their last game that that doesn’t matter. Internacional still aren’t great goalscorers so they may get a negative result here. Either way, I can’t see any value in this game with Figueirense trying out their new boss for the first time and Internacional missing more players than I care to mention. Vasco will be favourites to beat a rather out-of-sorts Botafogo side but are they better than Botafogo? No. Both sides are more than capable of conceding 2-3 goals in this game, which makes this a very dangerous game to bet on. I’d like overs but Botafogo are asleep right now so who knows what they’ll do here. This is a tight game I can only advise you to avoid it entirely despite the return of Elkeson for Botafogo, especially with Vasco recently selling two of their best players. Nautico are good in Recife and can beat Coritiba there. Coritiba look tired and out-of-sorts right now. They’re better goalscorers than Nautico and that could upset the hosts but Nautico are very strong on their own turf and it’s a huge game for them. I like the home win but not enough to back it. Atletico Goianiense looked weak against Internacional but who knows which Sao Paulo will show up? If they play to their ability then they’ll batter Atletico; it’s as simple as that. Will they show up, though? I just don’t know. This could be a convincing win or a demoralising loss for them, depending on how their “new” boss makes them play. They’re the better side but with some key players out, it just doesn’t look worth your time to bet on this game, especially with a large number of absentees to deal with. I like Corinthians to beat Cruzeiro from a quality perspective but Corinthians are not themselves right now and a mere goal appears to be destroying their gameplan, which bothers me. Corinthians are generally a lot more reliable and consistent than Cruzeiro but they’ve fucked up a lot lately and that bothers me so this is one to stay on the fence for too, even with Guerrero finally able to play, which should help them out massively from a goalscoring perspective. Lastly, Gremio vs Fluminense should be the game of the night as Gremio have been simply superb lately and are the form side in Serie A. Fluminense are arguably the best side in it, though, and I won’t rule them out here as a result. Taking both sides to score interests me but knowing the cautious nature of both sides (ignoring the form charts), I can’t tip it because a 0-0 really isn’t impossible between these two, which would frankly be a good result for both sides, in my opinion. This should be the best spectacle of the night from a curious perspective but I don’t see any value in betting on it, unfortunately, despite Fluminense having big defensive problems for the encounter.
Featured game
Linfield vs AEL Limassol – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Northern Ireland between Linfield and AEL Limassol.
The first leg ended 3-0 in favour of the Cypriot side, who played well and capitalised on their opponents not doing their jobs properly. AEL Limassol are a better side than Linfield, simply put, and that class difference showed by the final whistle.
However, let’s not lose sight of who and what AEL Limassol essentially are. AEL Limassol are a poorer version of APOEL Nicosia in the sense that they defend first, take their chances, and hold leads. AEL bring a 3-0 lead into this game; are they really going to go full-throttle? I doubt it. I think they can damage Linfield on the counter-attack but I don’t see them pushing on their hosts here, especially not with the tenacity and belief of the Northern Irish sides notorious to many people.
With that in mind, I suppose the question we have to ask is how much damage can Linfield do AEL Limassol? My answer would be “not much”, based on what I’ve seen from them in their previous games in this tournament. They’re still yet to score in the competition this season and that’s because they’re either wasting chances (e.g. the penalty miss in the first game against B36 Torshavn) or being easily nullified (e.g. the 0-0 draw in the Faroe Islands in the return leg). Linfield will work hard and they’re not an easy side to penetrate but they’ve been awful in front of goal and against a well-organised AEL Limassol side, I find it hard to envision them doing anything of note here.
For me, taking under 2.5 goals at 5/6 looks the logical choice here. AEL are a very unders side in Cyprus and with a strong lead carrying them into this game, it seems likely that they’ll fall into their usual style by holding the lead and playing on the counter-attack. Whatever the actual outcome of this game, I do like the odds on taking under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional game
Slask Wroclaw vs Buducnost Podgorica – both sides to score at 6/5.
This is a risky one but I love the odds on it occurring. I watched the first leg in Montenegro and although I don’t like hiding behind “fixes” when my tips lse, I genuinely feel that it was a fixed game. I’ve never seen such a catalogue of blatantly bad refereeing in the same game. There was a penalty to Slask that was never a penalty in a million years. Their first goal was offside and Buducnost were reduced to ten men at the end for one guy running with his arms in the air, as everyone does. The decisions were a joke, basically – the only one that was remotely acceptable was the offside goal as it can be viewed in other ways.
As far as the game itself goes, though, Buducnost were by far the better side, to a worrying degree. Slask did what they had to by taking their chances and the awful defending from Buducnost made those chances rather easy to come by. However, Buducnost kept the lion’s share of possession for the whole game and should have scored.
That game was in Montenegro, obviously, and perhaps we’ll see a different game in Poland. However, this is still a rather unfamiliar Slask side and they are open to attacks so I won’t accept the ridiculously short odds that they’re at to win what is essentially quite a tough game.
Taking both sides to score, though – I really like that selection. Buducnost have to score or they’re out and they should have done that in the first leg. Buducnost are bad enough at the back for a simple set piece or counter-attack from Slask to destroy their defence and thus I do expect them to concede. I’m not so such that Buducnost will lose this game – time will tell – but I do like the prospect of both sides scoring at 6/5.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.
Team news
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Slask Wroclaw – No absentees.
Ludogorets – No absentees.
Dinamo Zagreb – Simunic, Leko, and Pivaric are absent.
Brazil Serie A
Figueirense – Fred, Franco Niell, Heber, Joao Paulo, and Toro are absent. Abreu returns. Helio’s first game in charge.
Internacional – Datolo, Leandro Damiao, Oscar, Juan, Kleber, Nei, Guinazu, and Otavinho are absent. Bolatti and D’Alessandro return.
Ponte Preta – Wescley, Cicinho, and Tony are absent. Nildo and Roger are doubts. Thiago Alves returns.
Sport Recife – Marquinhos Parana has left. Rithiely is absent.
Nautico – Jean Rolt, Marcio Rosario, and Rhayner are doubts. Cascata, Rogerio, and Marlon are absent. Martinez, Ronaldo, and Souza return.
Coritiba – Emerson, Rafinha, Anderson Aquino, Cleiton, Eltinho, Jackson, Keirrison, and Marcel are absent. Lucas Mendes, Pereira, and Lincoln return.
Vasco da Gama – Fagner and Diego Souza have left. Eduardo Costa, Tenorio, and Rodolfo are absent. Renato Silva may feature. Felipe may return.
Botafogo – Lodeiro, Mattos, and Cidinho are absent. Seedorf is a doubt. Elkeson returns.
Atletico Goianiense – Leonardo, Felipe Brisola, Adriano Pimenta, and Pituca are absent. Diogo Campos and Marcos return.
Sao Paulo – Lucas Moura, Uvini, Luis Fabiano, Ceni, Wellington, Cadete, Osvaldo, Fabricio, and Joao Filipe are absent. Rodrigo Caio returns.
Corinthians – Martinez and Douglas are absent. Liedson has left. Guerrero may debutise.
Cruzeiro – Charles is absent. Diego Renan, Tinga, and Souza return. Leo and Borges are doubts.
Gremio – Tony, Julio Cesar, and Fabio Aurelio are absent. Kleber returns.
Fluminense – Bruno, Carlinhos, Jean, and Deco are absent.