TFT Issue 513!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Djurgarden vs BK Hacken Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game in Stockholm between Djurgarden and Hacken.
Interestingly enough, the bookies have priced Hacken as favourites here. That is an intriguing approach, really, as there’s not much between these two sides at all, if anything. I daresay they’ve realised that Hacken are now in the the title race and titled the scales in their favour but they seem to be forgetting how Djurgarden play their football as they love to counter-attack.
Indeed, attacking Djurgarden is about as safe as sticking fingers in a plug socket. There are only two ways to deal with Djurgarden and that’s to either play their style of football better than they do or to perfect the “park the bus” routine. Hacken are one of the few sides that are capable of outplaying Djurgarden but the bookies appear convinced that they’re going to do it here whereas I’m not so sure, irrespective of the fact that motivation is on the side of the visitors.
True enough, Djurgarden were poor in the derby with AIK recently, succumbing to a deserved 0-3 loss in a game that they frankly created little in. I suppose you could make a case for wondering how it’ll affect them tonight but generally speaking, this side is rather solid mentally and won’t start crying because they lost a game. If anything, it tends to inspire them so I do wonder what they’ve got in store for us today. As far as quality goes, Djurgarden’s defence is still a mess, especially with Riddez and Pedersen still absent. Matters haven’t improved with the news that Ostberg can’t play tonight either. In a nutshell, Djurgarden keeping a clean sheet here would be something of a miracle. Still, I’ve yet to see a side this season that can convincingly handle the likes of Sjolund, Hamalainen, Fejzullahu, and Keene and thus I won’t rule Djurgarden out from getting something here. They’re a very determined side and will fight for points whether they need them or not. Djurgarden have lots of pace and finesse in their ranks so they’re the ideal counter-attacking side, really.
That said, I’ve seldom been more impressed with Hacken than I have been lately. Waris has matured so much as the season has progressed that he already looks an accomplished striker. Initially, his movement and pace impressed me a lot but now he’s a composed finisher and has a lethal shot on him from range. Hacken were outplaying Gefle in their last match without scoring until Waris unleashed a thunderbolt from nowhere and after that it was plain sailing for Hacken as Gefle have no “Plan B” after they concede the first goal – ever. Hacken went on to score again with new boy Mohammed scoring his fourth goal in three games and he looks another good prospect for this exciting Hacken side. Add the two of them with Makondele and Williams and you’ve got arguably the quickest attack in the division. Much like their hosts, Hacken counter-attack extremely well whilst also having the weapons up front to do damage to defensive sides like Gefle, for example. The momentum is strong for Gerhardsson’s team right now and although I wouldn’t necessarily back them to win here, I certainly wouldn’t oppose them when they’re playing as convincingly as they are, especially with Ericsson pulling the strings. Defensively, Hacken are crap and the absence of Soderberg and Forsell tonight don’t ease their issues at the back. Generally speaking, Hacken need to score at least twice to stand a chance of winning games against good goalscoring sides so Hacken will know what they need to do to win here.
I just can’t see this game doing anything but going over 2.5 goals, even on a horrible Friday. These two sides possess too much firepower for a 0-0 so my call is over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Standard de Liege vs AA Gent – home win at evens.
Well, Standard are still conceding goals for fun but they’re happily facing a Gent side that can’t score for shit right now. Conclusion? It really should be a home win.
Pre-season, most of Gent’s talented players were stolen from them. El Ghanassy went to West Bromwich Albion, Ljubljankic to Omiya Ardija, Jorgensen to Club Brugge, Smolders to Cercle Brugge, Coulibaly to Germinal Beerschot etc. and those players have not been suitably replaced. All that remains of that great attack last season is old Thijs in midfield, who misses tonight’s game anyway. At the start of the season, you got the impression that Gent recognised their issues with being a top side this season and had neutered that problem by working much harder. However, goals have dried up and that tenacity isn’t paying off now as an unacceptable 0-2 defeat at home to Mechelen indicated all too well in the last round of fixtures. With the exception of injury-ravaged Arbeitman and the lethal Ilombe (who has cut a lonely figure up front for Gent this season), Gent are horribly short of match-winners, especially in the final third and it really shows. This side has only beaten poor and/or out-of-sorts sides this season as any side with organisation and/or firepower has beaten them. With Thijs being joined on the sidelines by fellow regular midfielder Conte and both regular defender Mareval and new forward De Smet missing out too, I just cannot envision the scenario whereby Gent get a result against a potent Standard side. Standard miss Ogunjimi tonight, which isn’t ideal, but their midfield is playing so well as a whole right now that I think they’ll do more than enough to win this game either by actually scoring goals themselves or by creating an abundance of chances for whoever replaces Ogunjimi, most likely to be Ezekiel/Biton. Defensively – yeah, it’s not a good idea to even assess them because they’re so woeful at the back this season. However, I really rate their new-look midfield and the power it’s given them in the final third and thus I find it hard to see how Gent are going to handle them here. Gent may well score a goal (somehow!) in this game but I think they’re going to need at least two to avoid defeat and I don’t see how that can happen. For me, the value has to be on a potent Standard side winning at evens.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to win at evens.
Slovan Liberec vs Banik Ostrava – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
The Gambrinus Liga table suggests a fairly routine home win here. Indeed, so does the team sheet, as much as it no doubt pains Banik Ostrava fans to admit to. However, this under-pressure Slovan Liberec side looks to be struggling to me, conceding goals at stupid times and not really damaging their opponents enough. They’re scoring goals, which is always a plus, but it’s more a case of efficient finishing rather than flambuoyant displays, which is what sets them aside from the way they played last season.
Still, a combination of Blazek, Sural, Maicon, and Bosancic will lead to goals, one way or another. Slovan like to score goals in this fixture too, forcing this game to go over 2.5 goals in three out of the last four meetings between the two sides. As long as Slovan are in the mood (something that they didn’t show at Sigma Olomouc lately!) then they’ll contribute heavily to over 2.5 goals here.
Banik possess a weak side this season and they’re going to struggle more than usual today following a game only four days ago against newly-promoted Jihlava, which they disappointingly lost. They scored three goals in the game themselves thanks to Jihlava handing them chances on a plate but they shipped four themselves for similar reasons. If they defend like that here then they’ll be torn apart, basically. Still, they’ve looked better on the road this season than they have at home and I think it’s a reduced amount of pressure that allows Latal’s boys to show that they do have some quality when it suits them. Not much, admittedly, especially with Sverkos still on the sidelines, but Kukec can and will cause problems.
Banik aren’t good enough defensively to stop Liberec nowadays but they are semi-decent in front of goal and they’ve no reason to fear their seemingly uninspired hosts so I wonder if there’ll be a surprise in this game or not today. There shouldn’t be, of course, but if there is then Banik getting a result here would be it.
Still, I find plenty of value in taking over 2.5 goals at 9/10. I think both sides will give each other ample opportunities to score goals and thus over 2.5 goals should hopefully ensue.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Gloria Bistrita vs Petrolul Ploiesti – away win at 9/10.
Romania’s answer to Manchester City travelling to face a mug team with few talented players, if indeed any. Is it any wonder that the odds have dropped? No, of course not. Is there a time that this bet shouldn’t be taken? Yes – shorter than 4/5!
Gloria Bistrita’s boss Manea actually came out after their 3-1 defeat at Rapid Bucharest and confessed that his team did better than he expected. That’s just to give you an idea of what you’re dealing with in Gloria Bistrita. They have no firepower barring a past it Florin Bratu, who has not been a good forward for many years. They’ve got one, possibly two (depending on motivation) good midfielders in Predescu and Markisio. Aside from that, they’re a mess and vulnerable against all quality Liga sides. Key defender Cafasso misses out today too, which really doesn’t help them in their plight. They’ve played one good side at home this season and were humped 0-3 in that game by Vaslui. Petrolul may lack the cohesion that Vaslui naturally have but they have more than enough firepower to humble their unconvincing hosts today.
Petrolul bring good momentum into this game following their 4-0 win against Pandurii last time out. They were aided largely by a red card for their opponents but proceeded to tear them apart and that sets them up nicely for their game with relegation-threatened Gloria Bistrita. Petrolul could realistically clear the handicap here if they felt like it and if they had the required cohesion but they don’t yet; there are still too many unfamiliar faces in this squad. The absence of Boudjemaa and likely absence of Younes does their attack some damage too. There’s still enough in their ranks to see them win this game but they’re going to need to play as a team and take their chances. They’re composed enough at the back to keep out a droll Gloria Bistrita attack if their application is correct and I expect the likes of Cristea and Oprita to make enough happen in this game for Petrolul to win the game.
For me, there really should be value on the away win at 9/10, especially when you bear in mind the massive quality gap between the two sides. If only Petrolul would show it on a more regular basis, eh?!
Verdict: Petrolul Ploiesti to win at 9/10.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege – Ogunjimi and Gershon are absent.
AA Gent – Thijs, Conte, De Smet, and Mareval are absent.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 – Andelkovic and Horvat are absent. Ottochian is a doubt.
Lokomotiva Zagreb – Barberic is absent.
NK Zagreb – Medic is absent.
Split – No news.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec – Sural and Stajner are doubts.
Banik Ostrava – Gregus and Sverkos are absent. Kukec is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus – Kure is absent. Haland returns.
SonderjyskE – Lodberg returns. Swerts may debutise.
French Ligue 1:
Montpellier HSC – Utaka is absent.
Saint-Etienne – Clerc, Zouma, Brison, and Diomande are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szombathelyi Haladas – P.Toth is absent. Rado is a doubt.
MTK Budapest – No absentees.
Disogyori VTK – Rudolf will not feature.
Paksi SE – No absentees.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce – Kuzera and Korzym are doubts.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Konieczny is absent. Sokolowski returns.
Polonia Warsaw – Holota, Baszczynski, and Przyrowski are absent. Stokowiec has a touchline ban.
Legia Warsaw – Vrdoljak and Wolski are absent. Zyro is a doubt.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Moreirense – Castro is absent. Big derby.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Bruno Teles has left. Amorim, Dinis, Matias, Bamba, and Toscano are absent. Balde, Addy, and Joao Goncalves return. Big derby.
Romanian Liga:
Concordia Chiajna – Lepmets and Ipsir are absent. Sandu has left.
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – Lucas Garcia is absent. Hamed may debutise.
Gloria Bistrita – Ayza and Cafasson are absent.
Petrolul Ploiesti – Boudjemaa is absent. Younes is a big doubt.
Russian Premier League:
FK Krasnodar – Tubic is absent.
Mordovia Saransk – Yurchenko is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden – Oyal, Riddez, Pedersen, and Ostberg are absent.
BK Hacken Goteborg – Forsell, Vasquez, and Soderberg are absent. Dixon is a doubt.