TFT Issue 544!
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Featured game
Arouca vs Trofense – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Liga de Honra game between Arouca and Trofense.
Could there be a match between two more polar opposite sides? Arouca are a strong attacking side and for a Liga de Honra outfit, they’re surprisingly consistent. Vitor Oliveira’s side are hoping to get promoted this season and I don’t see why they can’t, really. It helps that a number of sides in the Liga de Honra can’t actually be promoted for obvious reasons! As far as quality goes, however, Arouca are one of the better sides in this division and it should show here. Veteran striker Joeano is in immense form with seven goals in ten appearances and with such a powerful and mobile midfield behind him, it’s not hard to see why Arouca do so well going forward. They’re not great in defence but generally speaking, they do enough to overcome their opponents via their goalscoring abilities.
Visitors Trofense don’t do anything but defend, either, which helps my tip today. Professor Neca’s side is very young but I still don’t understand his negativity. This side literally will not leave their own half in away games, hence them rarely scoring. Trofense lost 1-0 at Arouca earlier this month in the Cup and a similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me unless Neca has a sudden change of heart and decides to make his side randomly attack their hosts. Trofense don’t have the experience nor the firepower to match Arouca today, in my view, which is why I believe that they’ll lose the game.
For me, there really should be value on Arouca winning this game at evens.
Verdict: Arouca to win at evens.
Additional games
Bastia vs Girondins de Bordeaux – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Bastia can knock the ball around nicely but I’d be surprised if Bordeaux were afraid of their trip to Corsica today. The remnants of Blanc’s empire can still be seen at Bordeaux, who possess the strongest defence in France for my money. This side can frustrate any French side when it keeps to sitting back and soaking up pressure and that’s precisely what I expect from them today. They had a tough game in Madeira mid-week and may be tired but they’re not facing PSG today, you know? Bastia can be a handful but Bordeaux really should be able to restrain them. Bordeaux are not a big goalscoring side as it is and they’re facing a Bastia side that is devoid of their best attacking player – Modeste – so again, I doubt Bordeaux will be riled here. Diabate is out for the visitors, which further complicates their attacking problems, and only adds to my beliefs that this game will go under 2.5 goals. It’s not a coincidence that Bordeaux have only conceded one goal away from home in Ligue 1 this season (despite facing Lyon and PSG!) and as good as Bastia can be, I am not sure that they have enough to beat Bordeaux today. For me, the value bet is in taking under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Bologna vs Internazionale – over 2.5 goals at evens.
This new-look Inter side is not the typical over 2.5 goals side nowadays. Indeed, I find it hard to envision them scoring copious amounts of goals due to their strange tactics in the final third. It’s almost as if Inter are emulating Barcelona by not having a man in the box for the majority of the time. They play in and around the box but almost never have someone on the end of crosses, which is precisely why Inter struggle against “bunker” sides. However, Bologna are far from a “bunker” team – they attack, make plenty of chances, and score a good amount of goals. Bologna have no fear at home and have some very good strikers so I think that they’ll ruffle a few Inter feathers today. That said, Bologna can’t defend and the way they push on and attack plays right into Inter’s hands as there’s no way they can break through solid banks of four. I think Inter are going to be dragged into an over 2.5 goals game here, essentially, and although I can’t provide statistics to back it up, odds of evens do appeal to me on over 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Siauliai – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Ever since their star playmaker left, Siauliai have been surprisingly predictable, not scoring nearly as many goals. Striker Rimkevicius will always be a threat but without the appropriate service, Siauliai look deceptively ordinarily in the final third. I still think that they’ll cause sides problems for the remainder of the current A Lyga campaign but they shouldn’t be able to trouble the bigger sides in Lithuania, basically, and Zalgiris are one of those sides. Zalgiris are very, very good at dominating games and frustrating their opponents. Zalgiris need to win this game after Ekranas claimed three points at Banga Gargzdai yesterday and I think that they’ll get them too, especially after their morale-boosting wins against rivals Suduva and Ekranas respectively. Zalgiris aren’t great goalscorers but Siauliai are woeful at the back and I expect a motivated and in-form Zalgiris to capitalise on that today. For me, 4/5 on Zalgiris beating the -1.5 handicap is well worth a flutter here.
Verdict: Zalgiris Vilnius to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
RKC Waalwijk vs Twente Enschede – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I’m a big fan of the RKC way of playing football and I’m very anti-Twente for the same reason. However, I can’t see Twente losing this game and I’ll explain why.
RKC do very well when sides attack them. They counter-attack quickly and have plenty of pace on the flanks. However, they’re horrendous when it comes to breaking sides down and carving chances from nowhere. What usually happens is that they either get frustrated and start losing the ball, not to mention losing their confidence, or they feed the ball in to Chevalier and he misses more than he scores. RKC are not experienced enough to start to deal with “bunker” sides, especially not when RKC seemingly concede very easily. I like their players a lot and I hope that they do well but the fact is that they don’t like playing against well-organised sides.
I don’t think there is a better-organised side in the Netherlands than Twente, as it goes. They tend to struggle after mid-week European games and with leader Fer and striker Bulykin both on the sidelines, this should be a tough game for Twente. I’d argue the case for RKC playing more entertaining football than Twente but when it comes to winning games efficiently, Twente win that battle hands-down. Twente are not entertaining to observe under McLaren but they do tend to hold their own well. Away from home in the Eredivisie they’ll usually take the lead via a scrappy goal and then sit on it, which is exactly what I expect from them today. No game against RKC is ever easy but Twente can do that if they keep their composure.
Be wary of how good RKC actually are on the ball and what the repercussions of Twente attacking them will inevitably be. It’s not for no reason that the Eredivisie has a reputation for being a goal-filled league, after all. However, for me, under 2.5 goals is priced too generously at 11/10 as I don’t see RKC having enough to trouble Twente for the majority of the time.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Penafiel vs Benfica II – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
What can I say? Benfica II play exactly like their senior team as they surge forward recklessly, score plenty of goals, and concede some of the most stupid goals in the Liga de Honra. They’re facing a very well-organised Penafiel side that will not lie down and make it easy for them today. Indeed, they’ve got enough about them to score at least one against Benfica II today, in my opinion, despite goalscoring not really being their forté. However, Benfica II have plenty of firepower and it’s shown in almost every Liga de Honra game that they’ve played in this season. Pick a winner if you can but for me, the value has to be in taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6 in what should become something of a samba game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Lanus – Velazquez is absent.
Argentinos Juniors – R.Gomez and Placente are absent. Caruso is a doubt.
River Plate – Maidana is absent.
Boca Juniors – P.Ledesma is absent.
Belgrano de Cordoba – No absentees.
Union de Santa Fe – Galvan and Avendano are absent.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Split – No news.
Hajduk Split – No news.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Teplice – Matula is absent. Jindracek is a doubt.
Sigma Olomouc – Horava is a doubt.
Sparta Prague – No absentees.
Slovan Liberec – Musiol, Toth, Butenin, and Mustapha are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Esbjerg – No absentees.
SonderjyskE – Hedinsson returns.
OB Odense – Annier, N.Jorgensen, and Hoegh are absent.
AGF Aarhus – No absentees.
Midtylland – Izunna and Igboun are absent.
Brondby – No absentees.
French Ligue 1:
Lorient – Reale, Autret, Coutadeur, Ecuele Manga, Mareque, Emeghara, and Le Lan are absent. Mulumba returns.
AC Ajaccio – Lasne, Felipe, Cavalli, Delort, and Tiberi are absent. Belghazouani returns.
Bastia – Modeste, Sans, and Angoula are absent. Marque returns.
Girondins de Bordeaux – Poundje, Traore, Diabate, and Sane are absent. Henrique, Ben Khalfallah return.
Olympique de Marseille – Diawara, N’Diaye, Barton, and Gignac are absent.
Olympique Lyonnais – Michal Bastos, Grenier, and Gourcuff are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Gyori ETO FC – Liptak is absent.
Ferencvaros – Hakola is absent.
Debreceni VSC – Cvitkovics returns.
Fehervar – Torghelle returns.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini, Biondini, Capelli, Carmona, Ferreira Pinto, Ferri, and Radovanovic are absent.
Bologna – Acqufresca, Natali, Gimenez, Curci, Perez, Portanova, and Stojanovic are absent. Morleo is a doubt.
Cagliari – Pinilla, Ibarbo, Cossu, and Camilleri are doubts.
Catania – Augustyn, Sciacca, and Belluschi are absent. Keko and Terracciano are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Cesar, Paloschi, Sardo, and Squizzi are absent. Papp is a doubt.
Fiorentina – Pizarro, Roncaglia, and Camporese are absent. Aquilani, El-Hamdaoui, and Llama are doubts.
Internazionale – Chivu, Coutinho, Mariga, Obi, Sneijder, and Stankovic are absent. Catellazzi is a doubt.
Juventus – Marchisio and Lucio are absent. Pepe is a doubt.
Lazio – Marchetti, Ederson, and Sculli are absent. Diakite, Klose, Lulic, Mauri, Radu are doubts.
Parma – Galloppa, Mirante, Santacroce are absent.
Pescara – Blasi, Brugman, Crescenzi, Savelloni, Terlizzi, and Jonathas are absent. Quintero is a doubt.
AS Roma – Balzaretti, Lobont, and Taddei are absent. Destro, Florenzi, and Totti are doubts.
Sampdoria – Costa, Krsticic, Maresca, Obiang, Pozzi, and Romero are absent. Poli, Palombo, Icardi, and Munari are doubts.
Torino – Diop, Santana, and Suciu are absent. Ogbonna is a doubt.
Udinese – Basta, Benatia, Danilo, Mazzarani, Muriel, Pasquale, and Pinzi are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Mulder, Mokotjo, Cisse, and Kongolo are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Sigthorsson, Klaassen, Boilesen, and Serero are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Veldmate, Davidson, Schenkeveld are absent.
Heerenveen – Vandenbussche is absent.
PEC Zwolle – Slot, van Hintum, and F.Narsingh are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Toivonen, van Bommel, Pieters, and Waterman are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Ramos, Janssen, and Jungschlager are absent.
Twente Enschede – Bjelland, Rendla, Fer, and Bulykin are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Room, van der Struijk, Chanturia, and Ibarra are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Martens and Lewis are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Odd Grenland Skien – Eriksen is absent.
Honefoss – Adalsteinsson is a doubt.
Sogndal – Naess, Rudolfsen, Roed, and Furebotn are absent.
Aalesund FK – Arenfjord, Phillips, Rorvik, Sellami, Wembangomo, Myklebust, and Ulvestad are absent.
Stabaek – Aase, Hansen, and Cunningham are absent.
Viking Stavanger – No absentees.
Valerenga Oslo – Kone, Ogude, Samuel, and Naess are absent.
Tromso – Sahlman and Kara are absent.
Molde FK – Gatt and Hovland are absent. Hoseth and Bugge Pettersen are doubts.
Rosenborg BK – Braathen and Dockal are absent. Reginiussen is a doubt.
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Ranheim – Stilson is absent.
Sarpsborg 08 – Roberts is absent.
Sandefjord – Royrane and Amankwah are absent.
Bryne – Ertzeid, Stenersen, and Nyborg are absent. Midtsian is a doubt.
Bodo Glimt – Berg and Nordberg are absent.
Start Kristiansand – Madsen and Andersen are absent.
Alta – Erlandse, Ngom, Taulo, Nome, Ertsas, and Jarosinski are absent.
Hamarkamaratene – Hogan, Hagen, Nedrebo, and Dahle are absent.
Kongsvinger – Johansen, Fazlagic, and Moen are absent.
Strommen – Jorgensen, Olsen, and Nordheim are absent.
Mjondalen – Boldt, Strange, Ronningene, and Forn are absent.
Tromsdalen – Bertheussen is absent.
Notodden – Dale, Alsaker, Granreud, and Helgerud are absent. Campbell returns.
Baerum – Lundemo, Nervold, and Hjulstad are absent.
Ullensaker/Kisa – Soltvedt, Hansen, and Kristoffersen are absent.
Hodd – Ahmed is absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw – Cwielag and Keleman are doubts. Pawelec, Patejuk, Stevanovic, Diaz, and Voskamp return.
Zaglebie Lubin – Horvath is absent.
Legia Warsaw – Wolski, Efir, Saganowski, and Choto are absent. Jedrzejczyk returns.
Piast Gliwice – Urban, Zbozien, Lisowski, Jurado, and Swierczok are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza – Biskup is absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – Cichy is absent.
Tychy 71 – No news.
LKS Lodz – No news.
Polonia Bytom – No news.
Cracovia Krakow – Zytko and Dudzic are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave – Pateiro, Feliz, and Rodriguez are absent. Oblak, Wires, and Nivaldo return.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Kim, Skolnik, and Vladan are absent. Barcellos and Revson return. New boss – Manuel Machado.
Maritimo Funchal – Olberdam returns.
Sporting Braga – Anibal, Ismaily, Guilherme, and Ze Luis are absent. Haas returns. Mauro and Jose Manuel debutise.
Estoril – Henrique, Gomes, and Bruno Miguel are absent. Joao Paulo returns.
Porto – Abdoulaye, Miguel Lopes, and Kleber are absent. Iturbe and Rolando return.
Romanian Liga:
Steaua Bucharest – Tanase and Chipciu are absent.
Gloria Bistrita – Curtuius and Al.Tudose are absent.
Gaz Metan Medias – Vitinho, Vasilache, Alex Muntean, Plesca, and Buchta are absent.
Vaslui – N’Doye, Zmeu, and Balaur are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow – Misimovic and Ropotan are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Kornilenko, Nemov, and Joseph-Renette are absent.
Terek Grozny – N’Duassel, Rybus, Katzaev, and Kudryashov are absent.
CSKA Moscow – Necid, Doumbia, and Dzagoev are absent.
Rubin Kazan’ – Marcano, Navas, and Ryzantsev are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Diarra and Akhmedov are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Zaragoza – Obradovic, Lanzaro, Aranda, and Pinter are absent.
Sevilla CF – Trochowski is absent.
Levante – Lell, Dudka, and Ballesteros are absent.
Granada – Benitez, Romero, and Rico are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Ander Herrera, Perez, and Ruiz de Galarreta are absent.
Getafe – No absentees.
Atletico Madrid – Arda Turan is absent.
Osasuna – Bertran and Damia are absent.
Real Mallorca – Nunes, Lopez, Gimenez, Marques, and Victor are absent.
Real Madrid – Arbeloa, Khedira, Marcelo, and Coentrao are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor – Yildiz, Shelton, Ucar, Mbiala, and Unal are absent.
Genclerbirligi – Akcakin is absent.
Orduspor – Sahin, Monje, and Kabze are absent.
Gaziantepspor – No absentees.
Trabzonspor – Colman and Zengin are absent.
Bursaspor – Ipek is absent.
Ukrainian Premier League:
Illichivets Mariupol – No absentees.
Dynamo Kiev – Danilo Silva, Rafael, Leandro Almeida, Michalik, and Taiwo are absent.
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – Bolohan, Lastuvka, and Aliev are absent. Seleznov is a doubt.
Karpaty Lviv – Zenjov, Golodyuk, Balazic, Bogatinov, and Daushvili are absent.
Metalist Kharkiv – Cristaldo, Sosa, Barvinko, and Pshenichnih are absent. Vorobey is a doubt.
Zorya Lugansk – Shunich, Karmenyuka, and V.Vernidub are absent.