TFT Issue 59!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Armenia vs Russia – home win with draw no bet at 4/1.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier in Yerevan between Armenia and Russia. A lot of people underrate Armenia on the basis that they’ve heard of one or two Russian players and thus presume that they’ll win on that basis, which is pretty stupid, in my view.
Armenia have really, really impressed me over the past year or two with some enthusiastic and goal-filled displays. This side is not the walkover that they once were, in short. Don’t get me wrong here – this Armenia defence and and probably will concede in this game today but will they be beaten? I’d genuinely be very surprised to see it. In their last seven home games, Armenia have played well in all of their games, in my view. They beat Belgium 2-1 and it should have been more. They lost 1-2 at home to Spain despite playing bravely and being rather unlucky, in my view. They overcame a good Uzbekistan side 3-1 before leading against experienced Iran for a lengthy period of the game before capitulating near the end and conceding three goals. They should have beaten the Republic of Ireland at home but conceded to one of Ireland’s few chances in the game and squandered their own chances. They beat Slovakia 3-1 despite Slovakia’s solid defence before battering Andorra 4-0 last match and the latter may not look like much on paper but considering how well Andorra have played lately in terms of keeping the score down, I think it was a very impressive result indeed.
Shakhtar Donetsk midfielder Mkhitaryan pulls the strings in midfield as well as contributing to their goals tally whereas ex-Ajax hitman Manucharyan is usually partnered by Movsisyan in attack, which is usually a dynamite pairing. There’s a truckload of experience in defence with captain Hovsepyan having played well over a hundred times for Armenia and his compatriots like Arzumanyan at Jagiellonia Bialystok and Mkrtchyan at MIKA Yerevan having over forty caps apiece. Goalkeeper Roman Berezovsky has been playing in Russia for as long as I remember and has a lot of experience so I expect him to give the Armenians a bit of “inside information” to help them out here as well as try and keep the Russians out. Dinamo Minsk striker Zebelyan brings the height to the Armenian attack if their passing game doesn’t work out Pachajyan contributes a lot from midfield so all in all, I do think this side is worthy of much better odds than 6/1 – I just don’t think it’s a fair reflection of their ability or performances whatsoever.
The thing that people often forget with Russia is that they are not a goalscoring side. They’re a very defensive unit, usually in a 4-4-2 or a 4-5-1 in typial Russian fashion and although they’re always a threat from set pieces, they rarely demolish sides. Russia lost against Iran in a friendly back in February without even scoring a goal whilst they had to suffer the indignity of losing at home to Belgium in their previous friendly, losing without even scoring again. They’ve scored two goals or more in just four out of their last twelve games in all competitions and that includes their highly unimpressive 0-2 win at Andorra. Andorra more than matched them in that game and were very unlucky not to capitalise on a Russia side that were totally unimpressive throughout as they sought to rely upon Arshavin heavily, which is no surprise as you can count the number of creative midfielders that Russia has produced on one hand over the past ten years. Just look at their squad for the trip to Yerevan – where is the creativity coming from? They welcome back Zhirkov to give them a better wide game, admittedly, but only Arshavin and Bilyaletdinov bring creativity to this team and I think it’s fair to say that neither player is playing particularly well. Look at Russia’s attack, too – all very similar strikers with only Kerzhakov having any kind of mobility out of the three. Russia’s defence is as aerially strong as ever but it’s very susceptible to pace, something which Armenia have a lot of. Credit must go to Russia though – they’ve won three out of three away from home in the qualifiers thus far despite not playing well in any of their games so I won’t write them off here. However, I think they’ve brought a squad that could get a nasty shock as many people are underrating Armenia and especially on an international stage, I think Russia will find this game very hard indeed.
The most notable result I can find leading up to this game was Armenia’s drubbing of Slovakia. Why? Well, Slovakia play the same style of football as Russia but with less famous names in general. When Slovakia played Russia in Russia, Slovakia won 0-1 in a very defensive game in which both sides struggled to score. In this game, Russia face a side that broke through that Slovakian defence easily with cutting pace and incisive finishing so I genuinely think Russia should be fearful here. I can see Russia scoring from a set piece here as Armenia’s players aren’t the biggest in general but in terms of overall ability and potency in front of goal, I just can’t see Armenia losing this game. In fact, I believe very strongly that Armenia will win the game!
The odds are long for a reason, guys; approach with caution! I don’t think I’ve ever called a game with such long odds on here before now; not with such confidence at least. However, I just can’t see Russia winning this game, as strange as it might sound. If Armenia show up as they should here then they’re the only side I can see winning this game so I’m calling an Armenia win with draw no bet cover at 4/1 as the odds are far, far too long here.
Russia squad:
Goalkeepers – Akinfeev, Malafeev, Ryzhikov
Defenders – Shishkin, Vasily Berzeutskiy, Alexey Berzeutskiy, Ignashevich, Zhirkov, Anyukov, Makeyev
Midfielders – Torbinsky, Denisov, Bilyaletdinov, Zyrianov, Shirokov, Semshov, Dzagoev, Ionov, Glushakov, Arshavin
Strikers – Kerzhakov, Pogrebnyak, Pavlyuchenko
Verdict: Armenia to win with draw no bet at 4/1.
Additional games:
Cyprus vs Iceland – away win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Iceland may have no Steinsson or Ragnar Sigurdsson for this game but what they do have is a side that is taking this game very seriously indeed. They’ve brought an awful lot of their U21 stars into the squad for this game, depriving them of a massive game at Ukraine U21 to prepare them for the forthcoming UEFA European U21 Championships in Denmark in June so you can see how seriously Iceland are taking this game. The thing is that most people will underestimate Iceland here because they go off statistics alone, which is stupid. I’m genuinely not exaggerating when I say that Iceland U21’s squad is one of the most promising in Europe and the withdrawal of the likes of Gylfi Sigurdsson and Finnbogason saw their U21 side decimated by Ukraine U21. This Iceland team has a new leader in Sigurdsson and with Finnbogason tipped as the new Eidur Gudjohnsen and such talented midfielders accompanying them, not to mention their experienced defence, I really fancy Iceland to cause an upset here. Let’s not forget that Cyprus almost never show up against “average” or “poor” sides – they’re only ever motivated for the big games. In addition to that, neither Okkas nor Konstantinou trained for Cyprus this week and Cyprus lose about 70% of their offensive power without those two experienced attackers. I don’t honestly know if either player will feature in this encounter but if they do then they’re not at 100% so how can we take Cyprus seriously here? They do have some decent players and if they were playing Portugal or Netherlands here then I’d give them a lot more respect but to me, only one of these two sides has prepared thoroughly for this game and that’s Iceland. Iceland’s youngsters have a lot to prove and in all honesty, they’ve got a shitload of talent in this team. For me, 13/8 on the away win with draw no bet cover is good value bet today.
Cyprus squad:
Goalkeepers – Giorgallidis, Kissas, Morfis
Defenders – Ilia, Poursaitidis, Garpozis, Charalambous, Merklis, Christou, Shiells
Midfielders – Satsias, Dobrasinovic, Michael, Panagi, Charalambidis, Alexandrou, Paulou, Dimitrou, Avraam, Christofi, Efreem, Makridis, Christofi, Aloneutis
Strikers – Konstantinou, Okkas, Mitides
Iceland squad:
Goalkeepers – Gunnleifsson, Magnusson, Kale
Defenders – Hreidarsson, Indridi Sigurdsson, Kristjan Sigurdsson, Adalsteinsson, Saevarsson, Danielsson, Eiriksson
Midfielders – Gunnarsson, Skulason, Gislason, Smarason, Gudmundsson, Jonsson, Bjarnason, Kristjansson, Gylfi Sigurdsson
Strikers – Helguson, Sigporsson, Finnbogason
Team news – Cyprus miss Christou and Satsias for this game.
Verdict: Iceland to win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Georgia vs Croatia – both sides to score at 6/5.
I simply cannot believe how generous the odds are on both sides scoring in this game! Georgia are rather bereft of household names nowadays with the exception of Kaladze and I used to be happy to go against them for some time due to their impotent style and lack of confidence. However, the return of prodigal son Temur Ketsbaia to Georgia, this team as a fairly experienced manager, has set this Georgia side alight and they’re on a terrific run at the moment. They’re unbeaten in nine games in all competitions despite fourof those games being away from home! Their last two games were wins; one against Armenia in Portugal and the other at Slovenia, both of which really impressed me. Ketsbaia’s tactics are spot on every time and Georgia have not scored for four successive games due to the belief that they have. They’re never an easy side to face at home and although I expect them to “park the bus” in this game, they’ve got enough pace in Vatsadze and Martsvaladze to be a threat on the counter-attack and enough finesse from Iasvhili to make it count too. Goalkeeper Revishvili is in good form, Kaladze and Khizanishvili bring good experience to their defence, and both Gogua and Kankava bring enough ability to Georgia’s midfield to make something happen in this game. Anyone expecting an easy Croatia win here – think again!
I can’t deny that Croatia are the superior of the two sides and they may even win this game. However, with Eduardo missing this game through injury, I do question just how potent the likes of Jelavic and Kalinic can be in such a tough away game. Let’s face it – their attacking threesome of Modric, Kranjcar, and Perisic are really, really exciting and I’d not rule out any of them playing a big part in winning Croatia this game. However, their defence is becoming vulnerable with more of their “old greats” at the back having hung up their boots – only Simunic remains. Croatia really miss Robert Kovac in my view and although Strinic and Lovren could become very good defenders in future, they’ve still got a lot to learn. The fact that Croatia conceded twice at home to the Czech Republic in their last friendly speaks volumes about how susceptible their defence is as the Czechs are a really poor outfit nowadays with very little goal threat.
Croatia may well win this game but I have no interest in the 1×2 market other than to lay Croatia from a value perspective. Croatia are too short to win at a rejuvenated and well-organised Georgia side, in my view. However, Croatia have enough creativity to shatter the stiff Georgian defence in this game and Georgia have enough belief and pace to penetrate the Croatian defence so I think taking both sides to score at 6/5 is a good bet today, not to mention generously priced.
Georgia squad:
Goalkeepers – Loria, Revishvili, Kvaskhvadze
Defenders – Aldashvili, Khidesheli, Kaladze, Khizanishvili, Kashia, Salukvadze, Khubutia, Amisulashvili, Kvirkvelia
Midfielders – Gogua, Kobiashvili, Daushvili, Guruli, Kankava
Strikers – Siradze, Iashvili, Dvalishvili, Vatsadze, Martsvaladze
Croatia squad:
Goalkeepers – Runje, Pletikosa, Subasic
Defenders – Simunic, Srna, Corluka, Pranjic, Strinic, Lovren, Vida, Schildenfeld, Vrsaljko
Midfielders – Kranjcar, Modric, Rakitic, Vukojevic, Dujmrovic, Ilicevic, Badelj, Perisic
Strikers – Petric, Eduardo, Mandzukic, Jelavic, Kalinic
Team news – Croatia miss Eduardo for this game through injury.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.
Pogon Szczecin vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz – home win at 11/10.
Pogon were unlucky not to win against Flota in the derby last match and look set to bring that determination into this game based on the comments of players before the game. Their league placing in Liga 1 is misleading; they’ve defended like idiots in some parts of the season but they’re a top six side, in my view, and they look set to have the cohesion to do damage here. They need to keep their composure in front of goal more as that’s been their weakest area since their return from the winter break, something that wasn’t a problem for them earlier this season. However, in ex-Wisla Krakow striker Moskalewicz they have a proven finisher and in Bartosz Lawa they have one of the best midfielders in Liga 1 so Pogon do have enough to win this game.
Since returning from the winter break, Sandecja Nowy Sacz have lost both games so they’ve really started off on the wrong foot! They were poor at home to Ruch Radzionkow last match and were comfortably eased past by Flota Swinoujscie in their last away game so things don’t look too great for the visitors here. The trip to Szczecin for Sandecja is one of the longest that can be made in this division in it’s generally one that sides struggle to make successfully with Silesia being a hostile region for football.
Sandecja’s weakness in front of goal is beginning to show and with Pogon threatening to burst into life, as well as their league placing not being reflective of their ability, I have to fancy the home win at 11/10 here.
Verdict: Pogon Szczecin to win at 11/10.