TFT Issue 73!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Be wary of three Italian Serie A games today that are supposed to be fixed. Those games are Cagliari vs Brescia, Sampdoria vs Lecce, and Palermo vs Cesena. They’re supposedly fixed draws but I’d recommend avoiding them entirely. After all, none of us here are in the betting rings so it’d be stupid to presume that hearsay of other punters is correct.
Double chance
1X:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk
Once Caldas Manizales
Olympique Lyonnais
Olympique de Marseille
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Panathinaikos
Liepajas Metalurgs
Skonto Riga
Sarpsborg 08
Rubin Kazan’
Red Star Belgrade
Racing Santander
Karpaty Lviv
Deportivo Anzoategui
The bin
Ujpest vs Debreceni VSC – home win at 6/4.
Very tempting but the hosts miss too many players, from what I’ve heard. Ujpest are better than Debreceni VSC at the moment so I’m working very hard to avoid betting on them to win this one anyway though!
Featured game
Racing Santander vs Levante – home win at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Racing Santander and Levante in northern Spain.
The hosts have looked strong under Marcelino since his return and they even won in Barcelona against Espanyol last match prove not only how strongly they believe in themselves but how well they’re taking their chances too. They’ve scored in every game since Marcelino returned as boss with Giovanni Dos Santos, Rosenberg, and Munitis all finding their own respective uses in attack. Marcelino’s influence may not appear to be as strong with just two wins from Racing’s last five home games but it’s certainly worth noting that the only side that has won in Santander is Real Madrid with the two sides that left with a draw being Valenciana duo Valencia CF and Villarreal CF respectively. Santander have beaten Sevilla CF and northern Spain rivals Real Sociedad in their other two home games and with Santander having scored nine times during those five games, you can see how much more dangerous the hosts are in attack and that makes them a tough side to face because they’re already solid at the back. With virtually a full squad at Marcelino’s disposal today, you have to fancy the hosts to edge this one.
However, after observing the list of absentees for visitors Levante, you have to fancy the hosts to walk this game! Leading goalscorer Caicedo is absent, number one goalkeeper Munua is absent, holding midfielder Sergio is absent, and two of their most experienced defenders – Juanfran and Ballesteros – are both absent too. This denies Levante a good deal of potency – only Stuani remains to put the ball in the net – and also denies them a great deal of stability at the back, which could be a problem here. Levante have little control in midfield without Sergio and despite their excellent displays of alte, I can’t rate their chances here with so many important players having been left in Valenciana. There’s a good reason that Levante have lost nine out of fifteen on the road so far this season and it’s because they’re not very good at playing away from home!
For me, this should be a straightforward home win. There’s plenty riding on it with both sides locked in a Primera Liga relegation battle. However, Marcelino is making this Santander side dance to his tune and they’re looking very strong indeed at the same time. Levante are a hard side to beat sometimes, especially when underestimated, but they miss too many players to take anything away from their trip to Santander, in my view. Therefore, my call is the home win at 10/11.
Team news – Racing Santander miss Serrano, Tziolis, Francis, and Arana whereas Levante miss Sergio, Caicedo, Iborra, Ballesteros, Juanfran, Munua, and Welington.
Verdict: Racing Santander to win at 10/11.
Additional games
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Vitebsk – HT/FT Shakhtyor Soligorsk/Shakhtyor Soligorsk at 4/5.
I’ve mentioned before that Soligorsk can be a frustrating side as they have a lot of talented players and I stand by that statement. They’re not a side that you’ll see me back particularly often with any degree of confidence unless they’re in-form because they tend to disappoint otherwise. However, a good 0-1 win at a much-improved Neman Grodno earlier this week gives Shakhtyor the ideal platform on which to launch their Vysshaya Liga campaign and I think they’ll do it too. Look at their attack – Alumona, Komarovski, and now Yurchanka – there’s goals in this team, that’s for sure! They’ve still got some distance to go before convincing me that they’re as big a giant as the bookies deem them to be but I still fancy them massively today.
Why? Well, Vitebsk helpfully sold almost all their midfield pre-season, not to mention large portions of their attack and some of their defence. Vitebsk’s only strong point prior to this season was being hard to beat and they’ve lost that with so many departures of important players. They were drubbed 3-0 at Dinamo Brest in their opening game of the season, as expected, and were held to a 1-1 draw at home against fellow relegation battlers Torpedo Zhodino so you can see where they’re at currently. Vitebsk used to be a nightmare side to face; they weren’t particularly good but they played well as a unit. However, a great deal of that unit has moved on so what remains? Very little indeed, hence my thought pattern being that they’ll get relegated from the Vysshaya Liga this season.
The -1.5 handicap appeals to me here but I’m opting fot the HT/FT bet instead as I expect the hosts to score early and either hold it or improve on it after half-time. Vitebsk offer nowhere near as much resistance nowadays and in my eyes, this should be a straightforward win for Shakhtyor Soligorsk, just as it has been for four out of the last five meetings between these two outfits.
Verdict: HT/FT Shakhtyor Soligorsk/Shakhtyor Soligorsk at 4/5.
Dinamo Minsk vs Gomel – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Both of these clubs underwent some large changes pre-season and as a result, both sides are scoring and conceding goals. Dinamo Minsk are probably the more familiar name for yourselves but newly-promoted Gomel are not a side to dismiss as they’re still a large club with plenty of able players. Gomel in particular have spent big to try and bring experienced Vysshaya Liga players into their team and although they’re susceptible at the back, they do pose a very strong attacking threat so Gurenko’s Dinamo Minsk could struggle here. Dinamo Minsk lost more talent than they brought in pre-season with captain Kislyak, Chukhley, Shkabara, and Strakhanovich all leaving Dinamo Minsk’s infamous midfield. Indeed, even their brightest midfield talent Rekish departed on loan to Polonia Warsaw back in February so you could be forgiven for thinking that the hosts would struggle a lot this season – I certainly did. However, they’ve not rested on their laurels as they’ve signed ex-Partizan Minsk midfielder Afanasiev, Dinamo Brest midfielder Kibuk, and Dnepr Mogilev midfielders Yasinski and Bychenok to replace the departed players. However, that’ll take time, hence Dinamo Minsk not being their usual assured selves. More importantly, the hosts have signed Vyacheslav Hleb and ex-academy boy Leonid Kovel in attack to add skill and pace respectively, which massively improves an area that troubled Dinamo Minsk a lot last season so you may see them transform into a more orthodox 4-4-2 now that their midfield has changed a lot. A 3-1 win against Belshina in their opening Vysshaya Liga game showed their intent to attack and break down stubborn defences whereas a 0-0 draw at rivals FC Minsk last match demonstrated their ability to keep the ball well. What will they have in store for Gomel today, I wonder? It’s hard to say but with Dinamo’s midfield still getting used to one another and Gomel being a solid attacking unit, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see over 2.5 goals here, one way or another.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
NSI Runavik vs HB Torshavn – home win at 11/10.
NSI Runavik flexed their muscles pre-season by signing Ghanaian holding midfielder Ismail from Hapoel Arce, Cameroonian defender Nanmi, right-sided Magnus Olsen from B36 Torshavn, and Georgian attacker Toronjadze from Suduroy. However, they lost midfielders Bogi Lokin to IF Fuglafjordur and Jann Petersen to Skive and although the former isn’t exactly a huge blow, the latter is a hefty loss and they’ll need Toronjadze to adapt quickly if they intend on pushing for the Meistaradeildin title this time around. I think it’s fair to summarise that NSI Runavik have grown at least a little stronger since last season and with Davidsen holding the defence together and lethal duo Olsen and Jacobsen still fronting their attack, I really have to take the hosts seriously for this game, especially as they’ve won five out of their last six home games against HB Torshavn.
Pre-season, HB Torshavn lost Kuljic to AB Argir, who has left to become player/assistant manager, and defender/midfielder Levi Hansen to EB/Streymur. HB Torshavn also signed striker Poulsen from Suduroy and Rogvi Poulsen back from Crewe Alexandra, albeit rather temporarily, with the midfielder expected to return to England in June. Much like NSI Runavik, I’d make a case for the Faroese giants having strengthened their squad marginally too, especially with Poulsen’s return. However, the departure of Kuljic and Hansen has left holes in their defence and it’s shown so far in the current campaign. HB Torshavn were easily beaten by rivals EB/Streymur in the Faroese Super Cup without greatly threatening their opponents and were also undone by Vikingur Gotu at home in the Logmanssteypid with both games ending 2-0. HB Torshavn just aren’t clicking in attack and they’re looking susceptible in defence. However, the news gets worse for HB with star striker av Flotum having suffered a hefty injury that has ruled him out for some time. The experienced striker was one of their best players last season and without him, HB rely far too much on the pace of Simun Samuelsen and influence of playmaker Frodhi Benjaminsen.
This won’t help HB long-term and given how potent NSI Runavik are, especially at home, I have to take the home win here.
Team news – HB Torshavn miss av Flotum.
Verdict: NSI Runavik to win at 11/10.
Stromsgodset vs Odd Grenland Skien – home win at 23/20.
I can’t substantiate this one anywhere near as much as I’d like other than by saying that Stromsgodset are one of the strongest sides in Norway when playing at home. Nobody has an easy trip to the Marienlyst in Drammen, partially due to the artificial turf and partially due to the tenacious hosts. Stromsgodset are notorious for scoring a lot of goals at home and the loan return of ex-prodigy Berget will certainly assist them there, especially with Pedersen having left for Vitesse Arnhem in the Netherlands last season. Stromsgodset’s defence is often vulnerable but their attack is superb and this side simply has a lot of options in attack, something which isn’t reflected in the odds today. Visitors Odd Grenland can be a force but only at home usually. They won 1-4 at newly-promoted Sogndal last time out and that must be taken into consideration here. However, they’re not as good as their hosts, in my humble opinion, and thus the hosts look worthy of being taken at decent odds of 23/20 today.
Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 23/20.
Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow – away win at 11/10.
Korona Kielce decided to prepare for this game by sacking their manager. They they decided that the best replacement for him…was himself. Yes, they’ve re-appointed the manager that they fired to take charge of this game with the promise that he’ll be fired if he doesn’t get a result here. Confused? I sure am.
As if it wasn’t enough that Korona’s form and performances lately have been dismal but now they’ve got additional factors surrounding the management of the team to deal with too and I simply can’t see them suddenly being inspired as a result. Happily, the news gets worse for Korona as they miss star defender Golanski for this game through suspension, not to mention fellow defender Kuzera too. Korona have shipped twelve goals in their last four games and something tells me that missing two of their best defenders against what is currently the best club in Poland is simply not good news at all, irrespective of how good Niedzielan and Janczyk in attack can be.
Wisla’s display against Jagiellonia last week wasn’t perfect but it was efficient. They did a job on the Bialystok-based club, taking their chances when they came and generally fending them off rather well. Indeed, Dutch manager Maaskant is drawing praise from various quarters for galvanising the Wisla side with his opposite number today claiming that Wisla had already won the title. Maaskant, however, refused to be drawn into such discussions and elected to prepare his side for the forthcoming game instead, sensibly. Wisla have their own issues in defence with Bosnia-Herzegovina defender Bunoza still out with a broken leg and his absence is notable for the Polish giants. However, they do have enough in their team to cope without him in the Ekstraklasa for the present time so they should survive here, in my view.
In Malecki and Kirm they have two of the best attackers in the Ekstraklasa so Wisla really need to be taken seriously here. Wisla are scoring goals again and considering that their hosts are missing two important defenders and are playing terribly, I can’t help but oppose the confused and disjointed hosts at decent odds of 11/10.
Team news – Korona Kielce miss Golanski, Kuzera, and Maliszewski whereas Wisla Krakow miss Boguski, Boukhari, Bunoza, and Burliga.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at 11/10.
Nieciecza vs Ruch Radzionkow – home win at 5/4.
Little Nieciecza have been very impressive since returning from the winter break, going four games without defeat. Considering that one of those games was away against the best side in Liga 1 – Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – and that one of them was at home to moneybags Bogdanka Leczna, I think it’s fair to say that the hosts have done very well indeed. They’ve bagged six goals in their last two home games and have generally looked good at the back too. They bring tremendous momentum into this game, even though they miss midfielder Prokop for the game, and they should make it count here.
Financially-bereft Ruch Radzionkow look the ideal opponents for Nieciecza as the hosts need points whereas the visitors are a mess and thus are able to lose against anyone. They miss midfielder Rzepka for this game, which is a blow, but the fact that they’ve lost seven out of eleven away games already this season speaks volumes about their chances here already so Ruch should struggle here. They’ve lost back-to-back games ahead of this one, failing to register a goal in both games.
Given that Ruch have scored just twice in their past five games and that their hosts are scoring goals for fun with great gusto, I have to consider the home win at 5/4 appealing here.
Team news – Nieciecza miss Prokop whereas Ruch Radzionkow miss Rzepka.
Verdict: Nieciecza to win at 5/4.
Dolcan Zabki vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
This is a more speculative punt than anything but I like it nonetheless.
First of all, Dolcan Zabki are in dire straits; they need points, and they need them now. They did the usual club response to struggling times by appointing a new manager Podolinski to replace outgoing Moskal. Generally speaking, managers have a “honeymoon period” in charge of a new club and I’m hoping that applies today too.
However, a large portion of my confidence stems from the fact that Sandecja miss two essential defenders here – Makuch and Zbozien – and that’ll harm them in this game, especially as their defence is the main reason they get any points on the road, usually. Sandecja enter this game on the back of a morale-boosting 6-2 win at home against Kolejarz Stroze so they do bring confidence into this game, unfortunately.
However, Dolcan Zabki have all the necessary ingredients available to them in order for there to be a shock on the cards today and considering that Sandecja haven’t won an away game in Liga 1 since October, I think that the home win with draw no bet cover is priced quite generously at 6/5.
Team news – Sandecja Nowy Sacz miss Staniszewski, Berlinski, Zbozien, and Makuch.
Verdict: Dolcan Zabki to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
LKS Lodz vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – away win with draw no bet at 5/4.
LKS Lodz still miss creative genius Smolinski and it’s harming their displays. Additionally, they still have doubts over star striker Mieciel and promising attacker Kosecki. Those three players are responsible for eighteen of LKS Lodz’s thirty-six goals scored this season; probably more if you take into consideration assists. Therefore, to state that LKS Lodz are under-strength here would be an understatement. Considering that today’s hosts have won just twice in their last five games, I think they’re going to struggle against the best side in Liga 1 today.
Visitors Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala were quite surprisingly smart mid-week by taking an under-strength side to Lech Poznan in the Puchar Polski. As a result, they can field a virtually full-strength team here as they prioritise promotion over Puchar Polski success. That should give you a good idea as to how seriously the league leaders are taking this encounter and with Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala having already won six out of eleven on the road this season, losing just three times along the way, they must be taken seriously here.
The visitors are the best goalscoring side in Liga 1 away from home with an average of two goals scored per away game and considering that the hosts are potentially missing all of their big guns in attack, I can’t help but feel that the away win with draw no bet cover is generously priced at 5/4.
Team news – LKS Lodz miss Smolinski and have doubts over Kosecki and Mieciel whereas Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala have doubts over Konieczny and Patejuk.
Verdict: Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala to win with draw no bet at 5/4.