TFT Issue 77!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Oriente Petrolero vs Gremio – lay Gremio at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Bolivia between Oriente Petrolero and Gremio of Brazil. I don’t often like betting on redundant games but this one appeals to me today.
Why? Well, trips to Bolivia are never easy, usually because of altitude. Oriente Petrolero don’t have that advantage, unfortunately, as they play in Santa Cruz, which is in a low-lying area of Bolivia. However, what they bring to the game that other Bolivian sides don’t is an attacking threat and that’s generally why sides find it hard to play here, not because of altitude. With the pace of Campos on the left, the passing range of Vaca, the experience of Saucedo, and the finishing of Pena, Oriente Petrolero are actually quite the dangerous team and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate them here.
Visitors Gremio add to this bet by already being qualified and generally speaking, Brazilian sides don’t give a shit when they’re progressed. That’s not the case every time, of course, but it is what tends to happen. I especially expect that to occur tonight because Gremio are having internal problems and their displays aren’t convincing as a result. Couple that with the fact that Gremio still haven’t replaced the departed Jonas from January and you see a Gremio side that could struggle here. Let’s face it – Gremio are pretty away from home when playing in Brazil, let alone outside of it! They’ve played three away games in the Copa Libertadores this season, failing to win at a inferior Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay (2-2), failing to win in Colombia against Atletico Junior Barranquilla (2-1), and failing to win in Peru against Leon de Huanuco (1-1) so why would they start to win away from home now with no motivation to do so?
I’ve been betting in South American football long enough to know that nothing is impossible so do approach this one with caution. However, South American football doesn’t work like European football – the big sides are nowhere near as effective away from home in South America as they are in Europe and it generally shows. Look at the statistics from this year’s Copa Libertadores group stage – eighteen wins in eighty-one Copa Libertadores away games. Somehow the bookies think that Gremio merit odds of 10/11 here?! I fail to see why. For me, the value here is in laying the disjointed visitors at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Gremio at 4/5.
Additional games
Victoria Branesti vs Rapid Bucharest – lay Rapid Bucharest at 4/5.
I missed the ideal opportunity to lay Rapid Bucharest earlier this week but bottled it; I won’t make the same mistake again today.
Victoria Branesti might not have any home advantage due to playing their home games in Buzau this season but they’re a hard-working side that have played together for a long time so they’re capable of causing problems. They naturally have to face a side suitable enough for them to take points off but I think Rapid Bucharest meet that criteria today.
Victoria Branesti are quite weak quality-wise – we can’t really escape that fact, unfortunately. That’s why they’re in the position that they’re in. However, let’s not overlook the fact that they’ve only lost four times in thirteen “home” games this season so you can see how much their unity actually does for them.
Happily, unity is one thing that the Rapid Bucharest side do not have at the moment due to the disarray at the club that has seen the likes of Constantin demoted to the “B” team. It’s just one thing after another with Rapid and three wins from twelve away games in the Liga this season doesn’t merit such short odds to me with the above in mind, especially given that they’ve won just twice in their past six games. They’re not scoring goals because they’re not playing well and internal problems are not helping this club whatsoever. Quality-wise, they’re a lot better than Victoria Branesti are – that’s undeniable. Will we see it by the end of play today? I’m not so sure.
For me, the value here is in laying Rapid Bucharest. There’s no Cassio in attack, which limits their potency, and there’s no Constantin, who holds their defence together. Their attck hinges upon whatever Herea and Spadacio can produce and as good as they are, they’re not Ronaldo-esque so they certainly shouldn’t push Rapid down to such short odds to win this game. Branesti miss Corman in attack but have Oprea and Simion so it shouldn’t be a problem. Either way, I think laying Rapid Bucharest is the only way to approach this game today.
Team news – Victoria Branesti miss Cornan and Petre whereas Rapid Bucharest miss Constantin, Cassio, Coman, and Vidanov.
Verdict: Lay Rapid Bucharest at 4/5.
CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj – lay CFR Cluj at 4/5.
This bet works on entirely the same principle as the above bet in the sense that CFR Cluj are massively under-performing due to internal issues and they also miss key players. Their football has been very poor for some time now and with no Kapetanos or De Zerbi going forward and no Edimar or Panin at the back, I cannot help but look upon this frail CFR Cluj side and become blinded by how vulnerable they are. Local rivals Universitatea Cluj are one of the better sides in the Liga to play at home due to the ease with which they concede goals but the number of goals that they score will terrify their more illustrious rivals here because CFR Cluj are not scoring goals. I’m anticipating one of the most open Cluj derbies for years because the gap in quality is nowhere near as apparent due to the temporary demise of CFR Cluj and given the importance of this game to Universitatea Cluj, I think there’s possibly a shock away win on the cards today. Either way, I can only see value in laying the hosts at 4/5 here, even with no Pacurar in midfield for Universitatea Cluj – their momentum looks too much for CFR to handle today.
Team news – CFR Cluj miss Kapetanos, Panin, De Zerbi, and Edimar whereas Universitatea Cluj miss Pacurar, Tony, and Szilagyi.
Verdict: Lay CFR Cluj at 4/5.