TFT Issue 98!

Trans Narva vs Sillamae Kalev – home win at 6/5.

Today’s featured game is the Meistriliiga encounter between Trans Narva and Sillamae Kalev.

Trans Narva are one of the more experienced Meistriliiga sides and thus are always there or thereabouts near the top of the table at the end of the season. Unlike Flora Tallinn or Sillamae Kalev, for example, Trans Narva are a lot more regimented and efficient; even boring! However, it works to their advantage in games where sides attack them and that’s what has happened lately. This is their third meeting with Sillamae Kalev in as many games and Sillamae Kalev must be sick of seeing them! The first meeting was an Estonian Cup game which ended 1-1 and Trans Narva eventually won the tie on penalties. After that, Trans Narva went to Kalev and won 0-3 in the league last week. Today, Trans Narva host them in the knowledge that they know how to play against them, which is a big mental advantage, in my view. It especially showed in Kalev last match where Russian striker Alekseev was dismissed at the end because that’s what Trans Narva do to sides – they frustate them, they hold them, and they take their chances. They may struggle against poorer sides more than they should but when it comes to playing good sides, Trans Narva are very good and especially experienced at getting results. Narva have played four home games in the Meistriliiga this season and have won three of them without conceding. Their only blip was at home to reigning champions Flora Tallinn in a 0-2 defeat but that’s acceptable, in my eyes. Bluntly, Narva are a good team and they have the upper hand here. They’ve got experience in Bezykornovas, Kitto, Rimas, Gruznov etc. and they’ve got firepower in Latvian hitman Cekulajevs and his assistant Epikhin. Trans Narva aren’t going to win the Meistriliiga this season but they’ll be in the top three based on what I’ve seen so far.

Frustratingly, Sillamae Kalev should be up there too based on what I’ve seen of them. However, it’s their inexperience and inconsistencies that are doing them a lot of damage currently and that won’t go down well with meticulous manager Kazachenok, who is notorious for his strict regime. It was the Russian boss who acquired star striker Alekseev from Dnepr Smolensk a few months ago and he’s been a revelation since arriving, forging a lethal attack with Nikulin and Monakov with Paponov joining at will. Sillamae Kalev have been dynamite in front of goal as a result and thus they’ve been a side to fear. However, they’ve now gone four games without a win, drawing once and losing three times along the way. Yes, they’ve had a couple of home games that are on the harder side of things but it’s still an unacceptable run and it’s clearly affecting the morale of these youngsters. As I mentioned earlier, Alekseev lost his cool against Trans Narva last match and it’s cost them; he’s suspended today and that’s a massive blow to Sillamae Kalev’s attack as he’s the focal point of it. Without him, they return to the same attack they had last season; effective against lesser teams, not nearly as good against good sides. Additionally, they miss his strike partner Monakov today too, which is another hefty blow. Sillamae Kalev needed to be at full-strength here too, realistically speaking. They’ve lost five out of their last six Meistriliiga head-to-heads with Trans Narva and drew the other game and I don’t see that record improving today.

The biggest problem for Sillamae Kalev this season has been defending away from home. They’ve conceded in every away game, including at newly-promoted and vastly inferior Ajax Lasnamae, and actally average conceding two goals per away game. They were crushed 4-1 at Levadia Tallinn in their last away game and that’s totally unacceptable when you consider how many attacking stars Levadia lost pre-season. That’s not likely to improve today either – defender Nesterovski is suspended – so I just can’t look past a home win here. Morale is low in the Kalev camp and without their star striker against a strong Narva side, I don’t fancy their chances. Narva have the measure of Kalev, in my view, and their win is priced very generously at 6/5.

Team news – Sillamae Kalev miss Alekseev, Monakov, and Nesterovski.

Verdict: Trans Narva to win at 6/5.

Additional games

Cracovia Krakow vs Polonia Warsaw – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Cracovia Krakow have been good at home lately in the Ekstraklasa, although God only knows how. This side’s idea of cohesion is grunting at each other and eating rocks! Nonetheless, whatever they do has worked – well, at home at least – so they are worthy of some respect. However, despite their determination to get out of their relegation battle, they’ve got an uphill task against a talented Polonia Warsaw side today. They miss ex-Wisla defender Nawotczynski and given that he’s the only reliable one that they have at the back, they look set for a lengthy game here. They’ll work hard and may even break through the stiff Polonia ranks but I can’t see them defending well enough to win this one.

Polonia Warsaw welcome back playmaker Bruno and star striker Smolarek so Zielinski has his preferred starting eleven back. There’s so much offensive power with Smolarek, Sobiech, and Bruno behind them that Zielinski is absolutely loving it at the moment. Since he was appointed as boss, Polonia have been immense, to be blunt. The only side to get the better of them was Slask Wroclaw last match in a game where Slask goalkeeper Keleman had the game of his career, which says it all, really. Polonia have looked enthused, confident, well-organised, and dangerous in front of goal and now genuinely fancy their chances for a UEFA Europa League place next season and why not? They’re five points away with six games remaining and nobody is playing consistently enough to keep them away and there’s no doubt that Polonia have one of the best sides in the Ekstraklasa on paper – if not for their nutcase chairman then there’s a good chance Polonia would have won the title this season, in my view.

However, one thing is for sure – Zielinski is doing a terrific job with a very strong group of players and I expect Polonia to get something from this game. If Cracovia produce their usual tenacious display then there’s a chance that they’ll get a draw here with a bit of luck, hence the draw no bet cover. However, I can’t overlook 4/5 on a vastly superior Polonia Warsaw side winning this game withraw no bet cover!

Team news – Cracovia Krakow miss Nawotczynski whereas Polonia Warsaw miss Cotra, Adamovic, Riekisz, and Gancarczyk.

Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze – lay Lech Poznan at 6/5.

Lech won’t have any fans for this game following their issues with Legia Warsaw mid-week in the Puchar Polski final, which they eventually lost on penalties. They’ll not only be tired from that exhausting game but demoralised from a poor run and a generally poor season. That’s transferred it’s way into the team and has raised an internal conflict between attacker Stilic and Spanish boss Bakero, which has led to Stilic refusing to extend his contract. The press have spoken of Bakero in a bad way lately, saying he rotates the team too much and the players appear unsettled. To be brutally honest, Lech are nothing without Rudnevs at the moment and it shouldn’t be that way. The Latvian hotshot is worthy of a better league, with all respect to the Ekstraklasa, but he’s not the only good player in the team and yet he’s being made to look like that due to internal conflicts. Will Lech make the necessary European football this year? Well, it’s possible – the Ekstraklasa is so close this season – but it’s unlikely with vastly inconsistent and unconvincing displays.

You can look at Gornik Zabrze’s away record in the Ekstraklasa here and write them off, if you wish. However, having seen what they’re capable of when they won 0-2 at Wisla krakow last match, I won’t be making that mistake here. Gornik have only lost twice in their last five away games so they need to be respected here. They do have their absences too, unfortunately, with defender Marcinak injured and Stachowiak getting married (which Gornik’s manager was particularly angry about!) but they’ve actually got aspirations to be playing European football next season and why not? They’re definitely in the running and they’re playing pretty damn well. They’ve got experience in Jop at the back, a capable striker in ex-Bayern Munich hitman Sikorski, and creativity in midfield in Bonin and their Slovakian duo Jez and Gasparik and they’re more than capable of surprising teams so I think they’ve got a good chance of getting a result here.

Lech’s home record is strong, hence the good odds on this selection. However, they’ve scored one goal over their past three games in all competitions and one goal over their past four Ekstraklasa games – you don’t need me to tell you that they’re not themselves. Gornik are a really hard side to play against if your team demonstrates no cohesion and that’s what we potentially have today. For me, the only way to approach this game is to lay the hosts at 6/5 so that’s my call here.

Team news – Lech Poznan miss Drygas, Bandrowski, and Kikut whereas Gornik Zabrze miss Marcinak, Jonczyk, Bebenek, Bonik, and Stachowiak.

Verdict: Lay Lech Poznan at 6/5.