TP Mazembe vs Pachuca
FreeApologies for the Newells tip yesterday, guys – I had overlooked the fact that they’d taken the last Copa Libertadores place and thus their motivation was gone for the game.
Today’s featured game is the FIFA World Club Cup game in the United Arab Emirates between TP Mazembe of Congo and Pachuca of Mexico. The hosts have been one of Africa’s better club sides in recent times whilst Pachuca have been one of Mexico’s leading clubs for some time but both clubs have featured in this competition before so this isn’t new territory for them.
The Congolese outfit TP Mazembe, however, lack outside influence. They have a very physically strong side with tremendous stamina and will not be easy for any side to break down, that’s for sure. However, a lack of “outside influence” means they’re somewhat devoid of tactical knowledge and even composure here. Mazembe do have players from outside Congo (i.e. Tamboulas from the Central African Republic) but they don’t have any players in their team with consistent European experience, for example, and it’s games like this against relatively unknown oppoisition (for Mazembe at least) where it can show. Mazembe have some dangerous players and it’d be foolish to take them lightly but they are lacking in experience, tactical knowledge, and on the ability front as they’re facing a very good passing side. Mazembe lost to Pohang Steelers of South Korea and Auckland City of New Zealand in the last FIFA World Club Cup competition, which illustrates the points made above rather well – they score goals on occasion but leak easily as there’s little tactical co-ordination in the side.
Visitors Pachuca, however, have that side of things covered. They’ve got some very good players, some very experienced players, international players, and players that have played different tactical variations and lots of different levels around the world. For me, however, the key to their team’s displays is Damian Manso in midfield. The Argentinian is a gifted playmaker and has always shown that, in my opinion, even when he was coming through the Newells Old Boys ranks. I’d liken him to Pablo Aimar, personally, but he never enjoyed the European experience he had at Xanthi in Greece so he returned to the Americas to ply his trade in more familiar surroundings. Some of you may recall him dictating play from the Liga de Quito side in the FIFA Club World Cup competition two years ago – well, he’s back again, but with Pachuca! I really rate this midfielder and at 31, he’s looking very much in his prime so I expect a lot from him in this tournament. Pachuca also boast American midfielder Torres, who featured at this year’s World Cup, Colombian goalkeeper Calero, who is their captain and has featured in World Cups and a Copa America, wily midfielder Braulio, who has played in Mexico for many years now, Colombian target man Franco Arizala, who has good movement off the ball, but most importantly, Pachuca also boast Cvitanich in attack – the ex-AFC Ajax Amsterdam striker. It’s important because this guy has a natural eye for goalscoring and it’s that ability that convinced Ajax to sign him in the first place to replace Huntelaar. Things didn’t go as planned in the following season and he was subsequently loaned to Pachuca, which turned into a permanent deal last month. The ex-Banfield product is very much an integral part of this game and forms a deadly twosome with countryman Damian Manso in the side – these two players are the heartbeat of the team. Pachuca haven’t enjoyed games against African sides in previous FIFA World Club Cup tournaments with Etoile Sahel of Tunisia defeating them in 2007 and Al-Ahly of Egypt taking them to extra-time before Pachuca could overcome them. However, I’m convinced that Manso and Cvitanich are the difference here and should make this game more of “men vs boys”, in my opinion.
Therefore, my call is a Pachuca win at 4/6. The odds aren’t the best around but the gulf between these two sides should be evident by the final whistle so I fancy it a lot today. I also like over 2.5 goals as the pacey, strong Africans should cause the Mexicans some problems defensively but their own defending should be somewhat non-existant with the Mexicans deadly in attack!
Verdict: Pachuca to win at 4/6.
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Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This meaningless friendly is being played in Turkey so is a neutral venue but slightly favours the Bosnian side on the support front. However, I don’t expect that to give any great bearing on this game as it has no particular reason to. Both sides have named squads that are naturally bereft of players who play their football outside of their homeland so the likes of Lewandowski, Blaszczykowski, Kuszczak, and Obraniek will miss this game for Poland and the likes of Dzeko, Misimovic, Pjanic, and Muslimovic will miss the game for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Therefore, this friendly is more of a trial of local talent; a sort of game between the Ekstraklasa’s best and the Premijer Liga’s best. Although Poland would edge that quality-wise, in my opinion, there’s still very little in it here and I’m concerned about both sides having the offensive power to do damage to each other. Poland miss Nowak through injury (he’s played well for GKS Belchatow this season) and Sobiech due to poor health so their attack is effectively the pace of Pawel Brozek, which isn’t really enough at international level. Bosnia-Herzegovina face similar problems for this game too so suffice to say that I don’t expect many goals here.
I wouldn’t bet on the outcome of the game here, to be honest. Anything can happen between two sides that are eager to impress but boast little in the way of present talent so my call for this game is under 2.5 goals, which is generously priced at 4/5.
Squads
Poland – Sandomierski, Kaniecki, Sadlok, Wolakiewicz, Wojtkowiak, Kikut, Jodlowiec, Celeban, Borysiuk, Rybus, Pawlowski, Plizga, Wilk, Mierzejewski, Brozek, Robak, Kupisz, and Grosicki.
Bosnia-Herzegovina – Sehic, Avdukic, Trivumovic, Kerla, Vasilic, Subasic, Barisic, Raspudic, Zahirovic, Handzic, Dzakmic, Puric, Visca, Maletic, Hamzagic, Ivankovic, Kokot, Nikolic, and Dzafic.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Queens Park Rangers vs Watford – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
QPR currently lead the Championship table thanks to the experience of Neil Warnock, the experienced head of Helguson and clinical finishing of Mackie in attack, and the immense playmaking ability of Adel Taarabt in midfield, who is too good for the Championship, in my view. Taarabt’s contribution to this team is largely as a playmaker although his goals tally is rather impressive due to a large number of penalties that QPR seem to have going their way. Either way, Warnock has assembled a good and determined side here with able players and plenty of experience all over the park. It should be interesting to see Helguson and Tommy Smith here as they’d be playing against their ex-club Watford so there may be some additional spice to this game. However, seven wins from ten home games this season, including three draws, says that QPR are in-form enough to expect a win here against a side that tends to cause them problems. With QPR bagging over two goals per home game on average, however, I think it may be Watford who are struggling to cope in this game.
Nonetheless, that won’t halt the fearless Hornets! They have very little interest in defending as they favour an attacking approach to their games, which is commendable, as they’ve realised that attempting to defend is what usually nears them to the drop zone! My hat goes off to Watford though – no side in the Championship has scored more goals away from home than they have with an average of 1.6 goals per away game. Unfortunately for Watford, only a handful of sides have conceded more than they have away from home, hence the reason that they’re not in the top six at the moment despite being the joint top goalscorers along with tonight’s opponents QPR and Cardiff City.
Three out of Watford’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals and QPR boast the exact same record, although theirs is considerably more pleasing to me as all three of those QPR over 2.5 goals games were at home! The reversal of this fixture tends to produce more goals than this one, historically, but I think it’s time for a change tonight with both sides capable of scoring and conceding rather easily at the moment so my call for this game is over 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Hannover 96 vs VfB Stuttgart – home win at 7/5.
Hannover 96 priced at 7/5 after the form they’ve been in lately?! Yes, please!
Stuttgart are the bigger of these two sides but it counts for absolutely nothing here. Hannover have won five out of eight at home in the Bundesliga already this season, which is more than Stuttgart have managed in their whole Bundesliga campaign. Hannover haven’t defended particularly well but their average of scoring two goals per home game is paying huge dividends so my respect goes to them for that. On the back of four consecutive wins, you have to fancy Hannover 96 to cause a lot of problems for Stuttgart tonight, especially as the hosts have bagged nine times in four games, winning at in-form Mainz 05 and at home to giants Hamburger SV along the way. Hannover 96 won this fixture 1-0 last season and although they don’t make a habit of doing so, they should be able to emulate their success from that game tonight.
Visitors VfB Stuttgart are missing Romanian striker Marica for this encounter as he’s currently suspended. He’s not been in his best form of late but he’ll be missed as a regular in this side. That said, scoring goals isn’t really where Stuttgart’s problems lie – it’s the fact that they have the fourth worst defensive record in the division that is causing them problems and has actually placed them in the relegation zone. Stuttgart have lost five out of seven on the road this season as they average conceding nearly 2.5 goals per away game. They weren’t particularly impressive in the derby against Hoffenheim at weekend and barely earned a 1-1 draw against their ten-man opponents and that 1-1 draw means that they’ve now leaked nine goals in three games. Stuttgart haven’t won in five consecutive games in all competitions and have a lot of problems. Rumours are rife in the German media of Bruno Labbadia being set to replace Keller in charge of the disgruntled Stuttgart side, which isn’t a good sign at all! Stuttgart like changing coaches though so I daresay Keller will leave in the near future although who knows Stuttgart will bring in to replace him.
All in all, we have two polar opposites here. Hannover 96 have never looked more confident and assured than they do now and Stuttgart have seldom looked in such disarray as they do now. Hannover 96 are brimming with confidence following a convincing run and even the promising reputation of star striker Abdellaoue is unlikely to give him an automatic starting place in the Hannover 96 side due to the excellent displays. For me, the hosts are well worthy of a punt to win this game at 7/5 as Stuttgart look incapable of getting a result off any capable side at the moment.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win at 7/5.
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Accumulator fodder:
Adelaide United, Greuther Furth.
Recommended bets:
Pachuca and Greuther Furth at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
FIFA World Club Cup:
TP Mazembe vs Pachuca (7) 1-2
International Friendly:
Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (5) under 2.5 goals (played in Turkey)
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs North Queensland Fury (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Mechelen vs Club Brugge (5) 2-2
English Championship:
Swansea City vs Millwall (6) under 2.5 goals
Queens Park Rangers vs Watford (7) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Peterborough United vs Rochdale (7) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Hannover 96 vs VfB Stuttgart (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld (7)
Greuther Furth vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (8)
Alemannia Aachen vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (4) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Padova vs Sassuolo (4)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo vs VVV Venlo (7) 2-0
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Almere City vs Den Bosch (6)
Telstar vs Helmond Sport (4) draw no bet
MVV Maastricht vs Sparta Rotterdam (5)
Veendam vs Volendam (7) both sides to score
Eindhoven vs Emmen (5) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Ponferradina vs Cartagena (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Besiktas JK (4) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!