Universidad Catolica vs O’Higgins
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Division encounter in Chile between giants Universidad Catolica and the very Chilean-sounding O’Higgins. Universidad have patrolled Chile long enough with their bitter rivals Universidad de Chile and Colo Colo to know how to win games and their record is always reflective of that, especially at home. O’Higgins have improved in recent times but they’re still no closer to the two giants of Chilean football, try as they might.
However, the odds on the home win tonight don’t interest me. I think Universidad are certainly capable of it but they concerned me in the Apertura by not scoring enough goals. It’s not a massive problem for a club of their size and ability as they can dispose of most Chilean sides with relative ease. That said, O’Higgins were so strong defensively in the Apertura that I’m not keen on the home win. Clausura. Only Colo Colo conceded less goals than O’Higgins did in the Apertura this year so don’t underestimate the visitors here, especially not in the early stages of the Clausura, which is what it looks like the bookies are deliberately doing. Universidad won six out of eight home games in the Apertura but averaged scoring less than two goals per home game and conceding less than a goal per home game. They’re a solid side and love to control games, usually with great success, but it’s going to take all of their creativity to overcome a resilient O’Higgins today so we should be in for a slow and somewhat boring encounter here.
O’Higgins would be the cream of Chile at the moment if they could find the net away from home but as they can’t, they’re lingering just outside of the “big three”. O’Higgins lost 50% of their away games in the Apertura but only just averaged conceding over a goal per away game, a record bettered only by Huachipato. O’Higgins rarely take the trouble to score on the road and I doubt they’ll start tonight as it’s the early stages of the Clausura and they’re facing one of the biggest and best sides in Chile so defence is the name of the game tonight.
Low-scoring wins are the speciality of the hosts and not conceding goals is the speciality of the visitors; unders, anyone? Four out of the last five games at Catolica have gone under 2.5 goals when they’ve hosted O’Higgins and it’s the same record for the last five meetings between the two sides in general. The home win offer little value in my eyes but the unders should never be as generous as evens for this game, even if we are in samba country!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
SV Ried vs LASK Linz – home win at 8/11.
8/11 isn’t great odds for me but they should be good value on this selection today. Ried were unlucky to be dealt such a hefty blow by losing 3-0 in their opening game at home to Sturm Graz. Although you could argue that Sturm deserved the win, the scoreline wasn’t very reflective of the game, in my eyes. Ried showed more of what they’re about by promptly crushing SV Mattersburg 4-1 on the road as they look to show that they mean business after a disappointing campaign last season. Ried have been strong at home in recent times and I expect no difference today, particularly with Ried having beaten LASK here for three out of LASK’s last four visitors. LASK tend to give Ried a game but LASK’s lack of strikers is a big concern for them. Somehow, ageless Maryleb and Zickler managed to terrify giants Austria Vienna last match at home and forcing the visitors in that game to score a fourth goal to eventually win the game 3-4. The scoreline doesn’t reflect what is actually a very limited and small squad that LASK Linz have but I expect a driven Ried to prove it today. I’d not normally touch this fixture at such short odds but LASK have lost a lot of players and Ried look set to be dominant in this game after their crushing win last match so I think 8/11 represents some value on the home win today.
Verdict: SV Ried to win at 8/11.
Mechelen vs Lokeren – home win at evens.
I can’t offer as much information on this game as I’d like because I’ve seen little news regarding both Mechelen and Lokeren over the window. However, even with changes to both sides, I can’t understand why these odds are so generous. Lokeren lost nearly all of their away games last season whereas Mechelen were good enough at home to finish in the top half of the table and they’re good enough to do so again this year, in my opinion. I’d love further information if anyone can supply some but to me, there should be value on the home win here.
Verdict: Mechelen to win at evens.
San Luis vs Huachipato – draw with away win no bet at evens.
These look like tempting odds to me, largely because I can’t see San Luis winning the game. San Luis finished bottom of the Apertura table this year and it’s largely because they failed to win a home game in eight attempts. They don’t concede as many as you might think but just seven goals scored in eight home games simply isn’t good enough, hence their problems. Their opponents Huachipato have similar problems in finding the net but tend to do so much more often than their hosts do. Huachipato, however, have the advantage of being untouchable in defence. In fact, nobody had a better defence than Huachipato did away from home in the Apertura this year and it meant that they only lost twice on the road so they’re to be feared and respected here. With San Luis so unbelievably impotent and Huachipato so strong in defence, the only outcome that cannot exist here logically is a home win so that’s why I’m going for the selection of draw with away win no bet. The only side that can win this game in my eyes is Huachipato and to back the draw (which is the most likely outcome for two impotent sides) with the away win being void at evens looks a good bet to me tonight.
Verdict: Draw with away win no bet at evens.
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva – away win at 3/2.
Try as they might, Nomme Kalju have only beaten Trans Narva once in their last twelve attempts, which was their memorable but bizarre 7-3 win back in 2008. A lot of games between these two sides end as a draw but it’s somewhat undeniable that Trans Narva are the better side and it’s also worth noting that they’ve won two out of their last three visits to face Nomme Kalju. However, what steers me towards the away win today is that Nomme Kalju are dipping into the transfer market a bit too much at the moment. They sold Felipe Nunes to Levadia Tallinn, who is a big loss for them and they’ve frankly looked somewhat impotent without him since his departure. They’ve lost key target man Teever, whose experience and ability in the air will be sorely missed. Konsa and Koogas should be eligible to play for them and they’ve loaned Mones from Levadia Tallinn but they’ve really unsettled their own rhythm and I think it’s going to count against them today. Trans Narva have participated in a little transfer activity themselves with Brazilian Mandinho leaving the club but Narva welcome back Gruznov from Sillamae Kalev, which should be of some comfort to Trans Narva as he can easily fix the game for them to win if things aren’t going their way because he’s a dodgy fucker. Narva have been terrific on the road in the Meistriliiga this season with eight wins in eleven games (the best record in the division currently) and Kalju have been wasteful at home with just four wins in ten home games. For me, the away win at 3/2 looks to boast some value today although caution is obviously recommended as these are still two good sides and could play out a draw if things don’t go as planned.
Verdict: Trans Narva to win at 3/2.
Flora Paide vs Kuressaare – home win at 21/20.
This is a risky but fun bet. Flora Paide are bottom of the table but are unbeaten in two games following back-to-back draws against vastly superior opponents. Why is that? Well, rumour has it that they’ve got some new defenders in and although I can’t back that up with any names, the proof appears to be in the pudding. Flora Paide may not be the most potent of sides but if they defend well enough then a single goal should be all that they need. Kuressaare, on the other hand, look likely to concede against…well, everyone. They’ve lost seven consecutive games whilst conceding twenty-five goals (an average of over three goals per game) and have already lost eight on the road in eleven games this season. If there was ever a time for Flora Paide to take the win then it’s now, basically. They’ve got a better side as a result of their new signings and they bring momentum into this game as a result whereas Kuressaare are only bringing a backside to be whipped. Although it’s a dubious call, backing the home win looks to have some value today.
Verdict: Flora Paide to win at 21/20.
Jippo Joensuu vs PK-35 Helsinki – away win at 23/20.
Jippo are a really stubborn Ykkonen side that I generally hate to bet against because they don’t like attacking; just defending. However, PK-35’s outstanding form of late has convinced me to follow the trend and back them to claim a sixth consecutive Ykkonen victory. They’re scoring goals for fun and are already the better of the two sides so there is some value here. My concern is the stubborn resolve of Jippo may be too much for their visitors as the hosts have only lost twice at home this season due to fear of attacking. However, four wins in six away games and an average of scoring over two goals per away game gives me confidence that PK-35 will do the business today, just as they have done for their last two visits to Joensuu in recent times, and the odds are good enough to take a chance on today.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to win at 23/20.
Leon de Huanuco vs Melgar – home win at 7/10.
Strong home side against atrocious away side; enough said? I’m just surprised that the odds aren’t at 1/2 for this one because Leon de Huanuco are deadly at home and Melgar have been poor for some time now, home and away, although especially away!
Verdict: Leon de Huanuco to win at 7/10.
Odra Wodzislaw vs Piast Gliwice – away win at 13/10.
This is an interesting but potentially worthwhile bet. Both sides were relegated from the Ekstraklasa last season but both have different goals this season. Visitors Piast want to be back in the Ekstraklasa immediately so they’ve appointed Marcin Brosz as their new manager and signed thirteen new players although they have lost fifteen players, three of which were important – Olszar, Wilczek, and Glik. However, the squad that is left is decent enough to do well in Liga 1 and although the potential of it may not look great considering the above information, you must also look at Odra’s plans for this year. Instead of pushing for a place back in the Ekstraklasa, they’ve decided to free the club of debt before attempting to regain their Ekstraklasa status. In effect, they’ve sold nineteen players and drafted in twenty-two players, most of which are youngsters and unproven. Odra want to be able to compete in Poland without debts and whereas this is the best way to go about it, I doubt we’ll be seeing them do much with this team this year. For me, Piast are clearly the better side and the odds on the away win make the bet look worthwhile today.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 13/10.
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Rubin Kazan – away win at 12/5.
Last but not least, we travel to Russia for one of the toughest games in Eastern Europe this year. These two sides can match each other blow-for-blow with their solid defensive displays and incisve finishing. All I would atypically lend in Rubin’s favour is that they’ve played this way effectively for longer than Zenit in recent times with Zenit’s overall form taking turns all the time until this year. However, there are a couple of factors that make this bet look worthwhile. Consider that Zenit were in Romania mid-week taking on Unirea Urziceni, which was a draining game and ended 0-0. The second leg is this week coming and Zenit’s focus is definitely on that so they may rest players today. Let’s face it – Zenit have a seven point cushion at the top of the table following an excellent start to the season so they can afford to drop points here, should they feel the need to. Zenit are yet to lose a home game this season but Rubin are yet to lose an away game and with neither side conceding goals often, this should be a fascinating game in a bizarre way. Zenit haven’t beaten Rubin in their last two attempts at Petrovskiy, losing one of them and drawing one of them. Indeed, I’ve seldom encountered a side that relishes big matches more than Rubin, who always seem to do well against the likes of Spartak Moscow, CSKA Moscow, Zenit St.Petersburg etc. so that also counts in Rubin’s favour – the ability to handle pressure and remain composed. Although this will unquestionably be a close game between two excellent sides, I have to feel that the away win is priced just a bit too generously for me to overlook with the above in mind so it may be worth a punt today although caution is obviously recommended!
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at 12/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Anderlecht, Fluminense, Slavia Sofia, Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota, Kashima Antlers, Cruz Azul, Servette.
Recommended bets:
Anderlecht, Servette, and SV Ried at 2/1.
Trans Narva, Flora Paide, and Levadia Tallinn at 7/1.
Fluminense, Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota, and Cruz Azul at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs SV Mattersburg (6) 2-1
SV Ried vs LASK Linz (7) 2-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Belshina vs Partizan Minsk (4) 0-0
Torpedo Zhodino vs Vitebsk (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk vs Club Brugge (5) 1-1
Mechelen vs Lokeren (7) 2-1
Westerlo vs AA Gent (5) 1-1
Anderlecht vs Eupen (9) over 2.5 goals
Sint-Truiden vs Lierse SK (5) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense (8) 2-0
Atletico Goianiense vs Guarani (6) 2-1
Sao Paulo vs Ceara (5) 1-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Rakovski vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (5) 1-1
Cherno More Varna vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (7) 2-1
Slavia Sofia vs Kaliakra (8) 2-0
Litex Lovech vs Minior Pernik (6) under 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
San Luis vs Huachipato (6) 0-0
Universidad Catolica vs O’Higgins (7) under 2.5 goals
Universidad de Concepcion vs Palestino (5) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Cortulua (8) 2-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 vs NK Zagreb (5) 1-1
Sibenik vs Cibalia Vinkovci (4) 1-0
Zadar vs Karlovac (6) 0-0
Split vs Varteks Varazdin (5) 2-1
Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka (7) under 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Hradec Kralove (7) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen vs Aalborg BK (6) 2-1
SonderjyskE vs Esbjerg (5) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Quito (4) 1-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Olmedo Riobamba (7) 1-0
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva (6) 1-2
Flora Tallinn vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (7) 2-0
Sillamae Kalev vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 1-2
Lootus vs Viljandi Tulevik (5) 1-0
Flora Paide vs Kuressaare (6) 2-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa (3) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jippo Joensuu vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)
KPV Kokkola vs Hameelinna (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Lombard Papa (7) over 2.5 goals
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kapsovari Rakoczi (6) 1-0
MTK Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 2-1
Vasas Budapest vs Budapest Honved (5) 1-1
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk (5) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Omiya Ardija (7) 1-0
Kashima Antlers vs Vissel Kobe (8) 2-1
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Nagoya Grampus (6) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo (7) 1-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 0-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Guadalajara vs Atlas (6) 1-0
Cruz Azul vs Atlante (8) 2-0
Monterrey vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) over 2.5 goals
Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM (7) 2-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Lillestrom vs Kongsvinger (7) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Tacuary vs 3 de Febrero (5) 1-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Leon de Huanuco vs Melgar (7) over 2.5 goals
Sporting Cristal vs Jose Galvez (7) 2-0
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Sport Boys (6) 2-0
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario Lima (6) 1-1
Polish Liga 1:
Odra Wodzislaw vs Piast Gliwice (5)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Kluczbork (6)
Warta Poznan vs Nieciecza (5)
Gornik Polkowice vs Gornik Leczna (6) over 2.5 goals
Katowice vs Dolcan Zabki (7)
Ostrowiec vs Flota Swionoujscie (6)
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 2-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Universitatea Craiova (7) 2-0
Unirea Urziceni vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 0-1
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Rubin Kazan (4) 0-1
Terek Grozny vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (6) over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Gombak United (6) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs MSK Zilina (5) 2-1
Nitra vs Kosice (7) over 2.5 goals
Ruzomberok vs DAC Dunajska Streda (6) 2-0
Senica vs Dubnica (5) 1-1
Spartak Trnava vs Tatran Presov (7) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Primorje vs Domzale (5) 0-1
Celje vs Rudar Velenje (5) 1-1
Koper vs Triglav (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden vs BK Hacken Goteborg (6) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs AIK Solna (5) 2-1
Swiss Super League:
Bellinzona vs Young Boys Bern (4) 1-1
FC Zurich vs Sion (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Wohlen vs Lugano (7) over 2.5 goals
Yverdon Sport vs Aarau (5)
Winterthur vs Kriens (6)
Servette vs Biel-Bienne (8)
Locarno vs Stade Nyonnais (6)
Chiasso vs Delemont (5)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Sevastopol vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 0-1
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Illichivets Mariupol (5) 1-0
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Volyn Lutsk (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips