VfB Stuttgart vs Mainz 05
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Bundesliga game between VfB Stuttgart and Mainz 05. This game still means something to both sides despite the season gradually drawing to a close as Stuttgart are surprisingly pushing for a European place whereas Mainz still aren’t free of the relegation dogfight.
Stuttgart enter this game on the back of an impressive and baffling 4-4 draw with Dortmund away from home. Although I know that Stuttgart are very capable with their budding strikers, I figured that we’d see a fairly routine 2-0 or 2-1 for Dortmund in that game. However, Stuttgart didn’t take it lying down and they really upset Dortmund by bagging four goals, especially with the hosts from that game having defended pretty badly for at least some of the goals.
This Stuttgart side has lost just one Bundesliga game since the end of January and to me, that’s very impressive. There’s no doubt that the signing of Bosnia-Herzegovina hitman Ibisevic has been the catalyst behind the revival in form as his link-up play with Harnik has been superb and thus the goals that are being scored as a result are giving the whole team a constant boost. Subsequently, we have a Stuttgart side in our midst that aren’t fazed by difficult situations and a side that thoroughly believes in themselves, which I feel is important. Judging by their recent results, they believe it’s important too. Stuttgart can’t defend for shit but they attack well and score goals as a result so any side that intends to prevent them from winning a game have to either defend like the Italian sides of the 90’s or score goals like a free-flowing Brazilian side, neither of which I associate with Mainz 05.
That said, I do have a certain amount of respect for the visitors because they’re very strong mentally. Depth-wise, they’re not very strong and if we’re realistic, Mainz are somewhat short on quality. However, the cohesion that the team has does make them very hard to beat, especially away from home. This side especially loves showing up when the bookies don’t think the will, such is the nature of their team. I mean, seriously – how many sides in the Bundesliga could be crushed at home by relegation battlers Hertha HSC Berlin before romping to a 0-3 win at Werder Bremen?! It boggles the mind!
However, one thing that Mainz do rather relentlessly is concede goals. Their cohesion allows them to score goals but if they face a side that is in a position to score more goals than they are then they tend to struggle. Subsequently, I think they’re in for a really tough game here.
You can expect to see plenty of goals in this one but rather than opting for the usual overs approach, I will try my hand at a home win for the ever-impressive Stuttgart against the changelings of Mainz!
Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to win at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
Cagliari vs Internazionale – lay Internazionale at 5/6.
Since the turn of the year, Cagliari have only failed to score in one of their seven home games, winning five of them along the way. Impressively enough, Cagliari have bagged fourteen goals during that run, which is a large percentage of all the goals that Cagliari have scored in Serie A at home this season! That should give you an idea as to how good Cagliari have been in the past couple of months, which they rather frustratingly didn’t show at the start of the season.
The islanders are very hard to beat in Sardinia and every side in Serie A knows it. You have to stop the ever-battling Cagliari side from scoring, which is hard enough in itself, but then also manage to score against their defence, which is also hard. I fail to see why Internazionale are as well-equipped to win this game as the bookies think they are with odds of around 9/10 on Inter winning the game having been seen in a few places today. I don’t think anyone would deny that Inter have the potential to win here and they certainly have the individual talent to make it so but will they do it? They’ve got a new and unproven manager who learned absolutely nothing about his team in their first game as they buckled defensively, giving away three penalties throughout their game with Genoa and were eventually begging for the full-time whistle to be blown, such was their lack of composure in what should have been a routine win.
If Inter play like they did against Genoa on their trip to Cagliari today then they won’t just not win the game – they’ll lose it. Cagliari are never a side to take lightly and if you watch them you’ll see why. They have less talented/recognised players than Inter but what they lack in that department they make up for in cohesion and tenacity. This is a very hard game for Inter and with an inexperienced manager at the helm and a lot of big personalities but lazy players at his disposal, I just don’t see how Inter will win this game without producing a scintillating display or having a lot of “help” to do so. Therefore, I see value in laying Inter today.
Verdict: Lay Internazionale at 5/6.
Sporting Braga vs Porto – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Porto are the bigger side with better-known players etc. but I think they’ll struggle here, irrespective of their good head-to-head records with Braga and I’ll explain why.
First of all, the Estadio AXA is an absolute fortress every single year. There is no side in Portugal that has an easy game here, partially due to the organisation of the hosts and partially due to their tenacity. Braga are not an easy side to deal with because they can defend a lead better than any other side in the country so falling behind against them can be fatal. The only side to escape from Braga without losing here this season is Benfica, who claimed a 1-1 draw earlier in the current campaign. Again, it’s very hard to get a result here and with the hosts being even more motivated than normal, I just don’t see Braga slipping up here.
Of course, it’s no secret that I’m not a big fan of the current Porto setup. I think they’re too predictable with their attacks all going through the middle of the park and I think they miss a clinical striker too, although the signing of Janko has helped them out in that department. Worst of all is Porto’s displays, however. Look, you can respect a side massively that wins games in an ugly fashion and that’s what Porto have done this season so big kudos to them for it; that’s how you win titles, after all. To say that they’ve been impressive on the road of late would be a big lie, though. They’ve needed some big refereeing mistakes to claim wins at Benfica and Nacional respectively and you saw what happened when the officials didn’t favour Porto in an away game – they drew with Pacos de Ferreira! As much as I respect the individuals of Porto, I really don’t rate their ability to win this type of game as they’ve simply not been convincing enough this season, in my eyes.
It’d be daft to say that Porto won’t win this game because there’s always a chance that they will due to the quality that they possess. I just think there’s value on a far more impressive home side winning this must-win game with draw no bet cover at 6/5, especially in their beloved fortress!
Verdict: Sporting Braga to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Litex Lovech, Ludogorets, Stoke City, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Suduva Marijampole, Celtic, Rangers, Red Star Belgrade, Barcelona, Kayserispor.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Banfield vs Union de Santa Fe (4) 1-1
Boca Juniors vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 2-0
Colon de Santa Fe vs Atletico Lanus (5) 1-1
All Boys vs Tigre (6) 1-1
Atletico Rafaela vs San Martin de San Juan (6) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Wacker Innsbruck (5) 1-0
SV Ried vs Austria Vienna (6) 0-0
SV Kapfenberg vs Admira Wacker (6) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs Wiener Neustadt (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs AA Gent (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Cercle Brugge vs OH Leuven (7) 1-0
Zulte-Waregem vs Mons (7) 2-0
Sint-Truiden vs Westerlo (4) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech vs Minior Pernik (8) 2-1
Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa (9) -1.5 handicap
Kaliakra vs Slavia Sofia (6) 1-2
Chilean Primera Division:
Union Espanola vs Colo Colo (6) 2-1
Deportes Iquique vs La Serena (6) 1-0
Rangers vs Union La Calera (4) 1-1
O’Higgins vs Union San Felipe (6) 0-0
Universidad de Concepcion vs Palestino (6) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena (7) 2-1
Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) 0-1
Envigado vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-2
Deportes Tolima vs Boyaca Chico (7) 1-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Atletico Huila (7) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs NK Zagreb (6) 1-0
Zadar vs Split (6) 1-1
Istra 1961 vs Inter Zapresic (7) 1-0
Sibenik vs Dinamo Zagreb (7) 0-1
Hajduk Split vs Karlovac (7) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Apollon Limassol vs Alki Larnaca (6) 2-1
AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis (7) 1-0
Ethnikos Achnas vs Aris Limassol (6) 2-1
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Jablonec (5) 0-0
Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Prague (6) 2-1
English Premier League:
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-1
Bolton Wanderers vs Fulham (5) 1-1
Chelsea vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
Liverpool vs Aston Villa (5) 1-0
Norwich City vs Everton (6) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Blackburn Rovers (5) 2-2
Stoke City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (8) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Southampton vs Portsmouth (3) at least one red card in this game
Coventry City vs Peterborough United (4)
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City (6)
Birmingham City vs Crystal Palace (7) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers (7)
Millwall vs Hull City (6) under 2.5 goals
Derby County vs Ipswich Town (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City (6)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva (7) 2-0
Flora Paide vs Sillamae Kalev (4) 0-0
Viljandi vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 0-1
Tallinna Kalev vs Flora Tallinn (7) 0-2
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Stade Brestois vs LOSC Lille (6) 0-1
Dijon FCO vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (4) 2-1
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Stade Rennais (5) 2-1
Montpellier HSC vs Sochaux (7) 2-0
Valenciennes vs Toulouse (5) 1-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre (4) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg (9) -1.5 handicap
SC Freiburg vs Nurnberg (4) 1-1
Kaiserslautern vs Hoffenheim (5) 1-0
VfB Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 (7) over 2.5 goals
Koln vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-2
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (6) 1-2
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Hertha HSC Berlin (6) 1-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Siofok (8) 2-0
Vasas Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 2-1
Diosgyori VTK vs Paksi SE (5) 2-2
Pecsi MFC vs Ujpest (6) 1-1
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Fehervar (6) 0-1
Italian Serie A:
Cesena vs Bologna (5) 0-0
Chievo Verona vs Catania (6) 1-1
AC Milan vs Fiorentina (8) 2-0
Novara vs Genoa (4) 1-1
Cagliari vs Internazionale (5) 2-1
Udinese vs Parma (7) 1-0
Lecce vs AS Roma (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Atalanta Bergamo vs Siena (5) 1-1
Palermo vs Juventus (6) 1-2
Lazio vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-2
Latvian Virsliga:
FC Jurmala vs Gulbene 2005 (5) 1-1
Jelgava vs Daugava Riga (6) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole vs Dainava (9) -1.5 handicap
Ekranas Panevezys vs Zalgiris Vilnius (6) 1-0
Atlantas vs Vilnius (5) 0-1
Macedonian First League:
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Santos Laguna vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 2-0
San Luis vs Jaguares (4) 0-0
Monterrey vs Tigres UANL (7) 2-1
Tijuana vs Atlante (6) 1-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs Rubio Nu (7) 2-0
Tacuary vs Cerro Porteno PF (6) 1-0
Sol de America vs Cerro Porteno (7) 1-2
Peruvian Primera Division:
Sporting Cristal vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (6) 1-0
Sport Boys vs Universitario Lima (5) 0-1
Jose Galvez vs Universitario San Martin (6) 1-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Legia Warsaw vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 1-1
Slask Wroclaw vs GKS Belchatow (5) 1-0
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow (6) 1-1
Polish Liga 1:
Gornik Polkowice vs Bogdanka Leczna (6)
Nieciecza vs Warta Poznan (5) over 2.5 goals
Kolejarz Stroze vs Katowice (5)
Olimpia Grudziadz vs Polonia Bytom (6)
Dolcan Zabki vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz (5)
Flota Swinoujscie vs Wisla Plock (7)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Arka Gdynia (6)
Olimpia Elblag vs Pogon Szczecin (4)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Feirense (7) 1-0
Olhanense vs Pacos de Ferreira (4) 1-2
Maritimo Funchal vs CD Nacional de Madeira (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Sporting Braga vs Porto (5) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Vointa Sibiu vs Vaslui (5) 0-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Petrolul Ploiesti (7) 2-0
CFR Cluj vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm’ vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 0-1
Dinamo Moscow vs Rubin Kazan’ (5) 0-0
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St.Petersburg (6) 1-2
CSKA Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala (5) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock vs Celtic (8) 0-2
Aberdeen vs Dundee United (5) 1-1
Dunfermline Athletic vs Hearts (7) 1-2
Rangers vs St.Mirren (8) 1-0
St.Johnstone vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (6) 2-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Radnicki 1923 vs Hajduk Kula (6) 1-0
Borac Cacak vs Novi Pazar (6) 1-0
Smederevo vs OFK Belgrade (5) 1-1
Javor Ivanjica vs Jagodina (6) 1-0
Spartak Subotica vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 1-2
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Rad Belgrade (5) 2-2
Red Star Belgrade vs Metalac GM (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Tampines Rovers (7) 0-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Kosice vs Zlate Moravce (6) 1-1
Trencin vs Nitra (5) 1-1
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Ruzomberok (6) 0-1
Tatran Presov vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (5) 1-2
Senica vs MSK Zilina (4) 0-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Domzale (4) 1-1
Mura 05 vs Gorica (7) 2-1
Triglav vs Rudar Velenje (5) 0-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Koper (7) 1-0
Maribor vs Nafta Lendava (7) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Sporting Gijon (7) 1-0
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Osasuna (4) 1-1
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad (4) 2-2
Real Zaragoza vs Barcelona (8) over 2.5 goals
Real Betis Balompie vs Villarreal CF (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Real Valladolid (5)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Guadalajara (6)
Alcorcon vs Alcoyano (7)
Sabadell vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5)
Cartagena vs Celta de Vigo (7)
Villarreal II vs Elche (5)
Huesca vs Almeria (6)
Las Palmas vs Numancia (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Malmo FF (6) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Orebro (6) 2-1
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Basel (6) 1-2
Sion vs FC Zurich (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Nyonnais vs Wil (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Kayserispor (8) 0-1
Bursaspor vs Gaziantepspor (6) 1-0
Fenerbahce vs Antalyaspor (7) 2-0
Samsunspor vs Sivasspor (6) 0-1
Eskisehirspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (7) 2-0
Istanbul BB vs Genclerbirligi (6) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Karpaty Lviv vs Metalurg Donetsk (7) 1-0
Chernomorets Odessa vs Zorya Lugansk (5) 1-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Montevideo Wanderers vs El Tanque Sisley (6) 2-1
Fenix vs Racing Club Montevideo (6) 1-0
Rampla Juniors vs Cerro Largo (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Prestatyn Town vs Neath Athletic (5) 1-1
Airbus UK vs Carmarthen Town (6) 1-0
The New Saints vs Llanelli (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!