Warta Poznan vs Dolcan Zabki
FreeToday’s featured game is the Liga 1 encounter in Poland between Warta Poznan and Dolcan Zabki. Warta Poznan are not having the season they they expected thanks to varying reasons but to deny that they’re anything but a superior side in comparison to newly-promoted Dolcan Zabki would be nothing short of a lie.
However, being just one place above the relegation zone certainly shows that Warta are lacking somewhere and I can’t possibly deny that. They’ve not looked as fluent as they could or should be in attack whereas their defence has been particularly susceptible, especially so away from home. The most important factor to note about Warta Poznan is that they score goals both at home and away, irrespective of how well they play, so I do like backing them for that reason alone. Their recent form is poor with no wins in four, losing their three games consecutively. However, I would hurriedly point out that their three defeats came away from home, which is where they’re particularly weak, and two of those defeats came against superior sides. Warta have scored four times during those three games so they do have the capability to trouble their opponents, particularly with experienced and able Zbigniew Zakrzewski leading the line alongside veteran striker Piotr Reiss. It’s a good partnership to have in attack although Warta do tend to look susceptible in front of goal without one of their twosome in attack. The general level of Warta’s side can be branded as “experienced” but that’s one thing they do lack in defence, hence the high number of goals conceded. Warta have notched up seven goals in their last three home games, including four against mighty LKS Lodz and two against a defensively-solid Flota Swinoujscie so they do know how to find the net. Interestingly enough, this game will not be played at Warta’s usual stadium – it’s being played at a new stadium that has been built in Poznan, which is presumably for the Euros. Lech and Warta will continue to share this stadium for the remainder of the season, if my source is correct, but one thing is for sure – Warta will play there today. This stadium suits Warta and their attacking style much more than lowly Dolcan Zabki so I expect it to have quite a substantial advantage for the hosts. My problem is that Warta have had problems paying wages on time of late and their side are on a run of bad form, albeit from away games, so we’ll have to see how that affects them tonight.
However, they’re facing a truly dismal Dolcan Zabki side that will undoubtedly do their utmost to gift Warta chances here. The newly-promoted outfit already look Liga 2-bound following an abysmal run of eight defeats in nine Liga 1 games, drawing the other encounter. They average conceding nearly two goals per game and have now lost six consecutive games in all competitions. They lost 2-0 at league leaders Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala in their last outing. At 0-0, Dolcan Zabki looked set to steal a surprise point following an impressive display but they were undone thanks to two late goals which indicates immensely why Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala are the top dogs in the division currently and why Dolcan Zabki are facing relegation. The visitors simply do not score goals, no matter how well they play. They’ve tried changing manager; it hasn’t worked as the club is still very poor in front of goal. I think they’ll have their best chance yet to finally score in this game because Warta pay very little attention to defence but on a spacious and good Poznan turf, I think they’re going to have far more problems than even the Liga 1 table suggests today.
I’m ignoring the table here, which I feel is quite bold as there is little that is not shown by statistics. However, Warta Poznan are a talented side in front of goal when they turn up and if they can’t turn up against what is unequivocally the worst side in Liga 1 currently then they (and I!) need to give up. I expect an open game here with plenty of goals but the advantage has to lie with the superior home side and their experienced bunch of players. 8/11 is quite generous on a Warta win – I’m sure it’d be shorter if they were in-form – so that’s my call here although I can’t deny that the -1.5 goal handicap intrigues me although I can’t find odds on it for shit! If you do fancy a bold handicap then don’t take lower odds than 6/5.
Verdict: Warta Poznan to win at 8/11.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Newells Old Boys vs San Jose – San Jose not to score at 4/5.
I had to look at this game for a while to find odds that I deemed to be good value but I’ve finally found some. Some games you have a feel for in terms of good value being in there somewhere and this is one of those games for me.
Why? Well, although Argentinian football is unquestionably superior to Bolivian football, we have to consider that Newells Old Boys are not the best of Argentinian sides. They’re a well-organised unit that causes a lot of problems for visiting sides but they simply don’t score many goals and they don’t concede many either. We also have to consider that Bolivian sides traditionally do not travel well, which is usually due to severe altitude differences, and tonight’s game is no exception so you can surely see where I’m coming from here.
Only Estudiantes De La Plata have conceded less goals than Newells Old Boys in the Argentinian Primera Division in the current campaign so don’t underestimate their mean defence. Only Independiente have scored at Newells Old Boys this season despite the visit of three other giants since that game – namely Estudiantes De La Plata, River Plate, and Velez Sarsfield – so the hosts look very likely to keep a clean sheet here. Little San Jose are travelling from Oruro in Bolivia, which is approximately 3700 metres above sea level so this is one hell of an altitude drop for them. They failed to score at a defensively-inept Atletico Huila side in Colombia in the previous round before destroying them 4-0 at home so I think the visitors are in for a tough game here. To be honest, I’d be surprised to see them leave with any kind of result although I do fancy a sneaky under 2.5 goals selection here as Newells really don’t score many goals at home – they prefer their narrow home wins.
The above is the reason that I don’t fancy the handicap. There’s no question that almost any Argentina Primera Division side can beat the handicap against any Bolivian side on a quality basis alone but 7/10 on Newells to do that tonight when they don’t have to and rarely do it domestically doesn’t appeal to me whatsoever. San Jose won’t give up here but I just don’t see how they’re going to score and thus I consider odds of 4/5 on the visitors not registering a goal tonight as good value.
Verdict: San Jose not to score at 4/5.
Blazma Rezekne vs Levadia Tallinn – lay Levadia Tallinn at 21/20.
There’s no secret here; I just think that Levadia Tallinn are far too short for this game. Despite Levadia Tallinn’s obvious supremacy in the Estonian Meistriliiga and their unquestionable experience in European competitions such as this is far superior to little Blazma Rezekne’s. However, there are a few other angles to consider for this game. For instance, Levadia have won just one Baltic League game in their last twelve, which simply isn’t good enough. In their defence, I think that the Lithuanian A Lyga and Latvian Virsliga are of higher standard than the Estonian Meistriliiga but a side of their experience and ability should be winning more games in this competition. They’ve faced some difficult sides but they’ve also faced some sides that they should be beating so I have real doubts over Levadia for this game, particularly after their laboured victory at home to Sillamae Kalev at weekend. Blazme Rezekne of Latvia are far from a great side; they’re an average side at best. However, this is one of the most important games that they’ve ever played in and they will treat it as a Cup Final. Usefully, they enter the game on the back of a somewhat rare Virsliga victory as they stormed to a 3-0 win at Tranzits Ventspils so momentum does lend a hand to the hosts for this game.
Despite the Meistriliiga season not being officially over yet, it’s going to take a big upset for Levadia Tallinn to usurp league leaders Flora Tallinn in this year’s title race and their displays of late have shown that they know it too. With that in mind and the hosts’ desire not to lose this game, I think the odds on the away win are far too short here. It’s not a banker by any means by laying Levadia today intrigues me as the odds look decidedly generous and Levadia are rumoured to be missing a few important players (i.e. Nahk) for this game, although that’s yet to be confirmed.
Verdict: Lay Levadia Tallinn at 21/20.
Fluminense vs Santos – home win at evens.
Hosts Fluminense are still top of the Serie A table as we enter the final furlong and in my opinion, they’ve definiely deserved to be there. They’ve had a superb season and despite missing star striker Fred for the last few months through injury so they’ve earned my respect here. They’ve got experienced heads like Belletti, Deco, and Washington in this side and their displays do show that experience rather well, in my opinion, particularly in a Serie A league that is used to highlight the talent of younger players rather than the more experienced players. Fluminense are three points clear of Corinthians at the moment but their rivals have a game in hand on them so Fluminense cannot afford to slip up. They’ve won three out of their last four games and haven’t lost in their last five so momentum is with them currently. The side works very well as a unit and the majority of their strikers are chipping in with goals so I do have some faith in Fluminense at the moment. They’ve already won nine out of thirteen at home this season and although this game will not be played at their usual home venue of the Maracana as it undergoes renovations ahead of Brazil’s World Cup but they’ve not had that home advantage for a while anyway so I don’t see it hindering their game tonight.
It aids my cause that they’re hosting a Santos side that not only struggle to perform on the road but also struggle to keep clean sheets. Santos have lost six out of thirteen on the road whilst winning just three times along the way, a record that is so poor that only Vasco da Gama from the remainder of the top twelve in Serie A can claim to have less wins on the road. Indeed, only two sides outside of the relegation zone can boast a worse record than Santos for conceding goals on the road with Santos having leaked twenty-three goals in thirteen away games – an average of nearly two goals conceded per away game! There’s far too much dependency on star striker Neymar as Santos players move on or fall into his shadow and in my opinion, Santos’ play is stuttering as a whole as a result and they look a lot more susceptible for it. They’ve leaked ten goals in their last four games, including a 3-1 defeat at goal-shy Vasco da Gama, so Santos are having more problems than the league table suggests. They’ve not won in four consecutive attempts on the road this season with two defeats along the way, one of which was at a terrible Ceara side so Santos are really very capable of being beaten on the road.
Santos’ problem is that their squad is too young and although that’s been a predominant feature of their squad over the years, it’s still not a good thing away from home against an experienced side. Santos thrive on their emerging talent but considering that the likes of Andre and Wesley have already moved on this season, you have to feel that Santos are beginning to look a little stretched. Fluminense aren’t firing on all cylinders themselves but momentum and experience favours the hosts and at surprisingly generous odds of evens, I have to favour the hosts tonight.
Verdict: Fluminense to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Gremio
Recommended bets:
Gremio and Fluminense at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Champions League:
Zob Ahan vs Al Hilal (6) 1-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Newells Old Boys vs San Jose (7) 2-0
Baltic League:
FK Jurmala vs Sillamae Kalev (6) 2-1
Blazma Rezekne vs Levadia Tallinn (4) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Santos (7) over 2.5 goals
Guarani vs Botafogo (6) 1-1
Gremio vs Gremio Prudente (8) 2-0
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria (6) 2-1
Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians (5) 2-2
Ceara vs Internacional (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama (6) under 2.5 goals
Polish Liga 1:
Warta Poznan vs Dolcan Zabki (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Gombak United (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!