Real Sociedad vs CA Osasuna
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Today’s free tip is in the Spanish Primera Liga encounter between Real Sociedad and CA Osasuna. Although not considered a particularly noteworthy occasion, there always tends to be a bit of rivalry between Basque and Navarre clubs. Add to that the natural unpopularity of CA Osasuna, and you’ve got a situation whereby it could all kick off at some stage.
Still, from a value perspective, I have to believe that backing the home team today makes the risk worthwhile. It’s a bit of a risk because boss Alguacil is confident in his team’s ability to hold a lead so sometimes they will drop back after taking the lead instead of pressing home their advantage. Sometimes it works out for them but I personally find it hard to share Alguacil’s confidence whilst Llorente remains a regular in their back four. He’s fine when pushing out of defence, and even on rare forays into the final third, but makes too many mistakes to be considered a good centre-back.
The good news for the Basque side is that the pandemic has afforded club legend Illarramendi the time to recovery from a long injury. He’s one of the best defensive midfielders in Spanish football because of his composure, strength, and ability to keep the ball. He should be an invaluable addition to this squad, as bizarre as that may sound for someone that has been at Anoeta for five years now. His long-term injury was bad but his return pretty much makes him a new signing here, and it should also ensure that Real Sociedad’s card count skyrockets now!
Even without Illarramendi though, Real Sociedad looked really impressive, particularly in 2020. They’ve got a healthy squad balance, players with good mentalities, and there’s not a soul in this squad that isn’t comfortable in possession of the ball. Their midfield is very strong, especially with Merino bossing it in Illarramendi’s absence. Both his and Zubeldia’s jobs have been made easier because of the vast array of attacking talent ahead of them though. It may not have panned out as Belgian winger Januzaj intended, this move to Spain, but he remains a talented dribbler – if only he could unlock it on a more permanent basis. His general absence is also indicative of just how well Odegaard, Isak, Portu, and Oyarzabal are linking up ahead of him though, creating chances at will. They’re all very clever footballers with quick minds and equally quick feet, not to mention speed. Barrenextea will be one of them soon enough too – tremendously talented youngster. All of that makes Willian Jose’s job as target man in the middle even easier.
I think the best way to surmise what Real Sociedad are is to say that they’ve got the right man in charge, somebody that understands the club, understands the fans, and understands the Basque way of playing football. I think other managers over the years have over-complicated what is essentially a very straightforward process. Alguacil may frustrate me sometimes when he won’t make his team commit to attacking football more when they have a lead but in general he’s been fantastic for Los Txuri-Urdin. Besides, I believe Real Sociedad will keep plugging away at CA Osasuna today, even after taking the lead – the Navarre club tends to rile opponents up enough to want to do that by nature of their tenacious, over-zealous approach.
For what it’s worth, I do like CA Osasuna. They may not be a Basque side, but they sure as hell fight like one. That cannot be considered a surprise, though, given how many Basques they have playing for them. They have the same boldness too, CA Osasuna. They do want to attack and score goals. They’re not the best at it, but it doesn’t dissuade them from trying. Other than club legend Torres, there’s no real focal point to their attacks because it’s a complete team game. CA Osasuna’s success or failure hinges entirely upon their togetherness and work-rate, which is why everybody in this squad is on the same page. What they lack in quality, they make up for in effort. Underestimating a team like that is dangerous, to say the least.
Basque teams don’t shy away from hard work though, so I think CA Osasuna’s customary advantage may be denied here. That is what tends to happen when they make the short hop to Anoeta. It’s usually an entertaining affair, but one that Real Sociedad win. The problem for CA Osasuna is that their ability to contribute to this potentially high-scoring match has been severely damaged by the absence of Argentinian forward Ezequiel Avila and Spanish midfielder Ruben Garcia. The former is their leading goal-scorer this season, and between them they account for just short of 50% of CA Osasuna’s goals this season. Again, this team relies on its collective display so it’s not the end of the world – I’m sure Torres will cause problems, as per usual. In a way, it’s a shame that Merida and Adrian have flopped as they have because both would be enormously helpful for CA Osasuna right now if they were playing to their full potential.
Anyway, I digress. The point I’m making is that although I expect a battle from CA Osasuna, I don’t expect them to be quite as effective in front of goal. I think that’ll be particularly crucial when it comes to deciding this fixture as Real Sociedad keep the ball in midfield better than most Primera Liga sides, and keeping tabs on their faster offensive players in the meantime is problematic to say the least. CA Osasuna should fall behind here, and I don’t see enough finesse on the pitch to get them back into it. The risk here is whether Real Sociedad seek to enhance their lead or not. I believe that they will, hence the below tip, but if not then the -1 Asian Handicap insurance should be sufficient for the stake return.
Ultimately, I have to view 6/5 on the -1 Asian Handicap for Real Sociedad as a good value bet today so that’s what I’m rolling with.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC
Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
Salzburg vs LASK
Bulgarian A PFG:
Arda vs Levski Sofia
Ludogorets Razgrad vs Botev Plovdiv
CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Slovacko vs Sparta Prague
Slavia Prague vs Zlin
Sigma Olomouc vs Viktoria Plzen
Slovan Liberec vs Banik Ostrava
Karvina vs Mlada Boleslav
Teplice vs Marila Pribram
Bohemians 1905 vs Baumit Jablonec
Opava vs Ceske Budejovice
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs FC Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen
Brondby vs AGF
SonderjyskE vs Lyngby
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tallinna Kalev vs Nomme Kalju
Flora Paide vs Trans Narva
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs Augsburg
Schalke 04 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
German Bundesliga 2:
St. Pauli vs Erzgbirge Aue
Darmstadt 98 vs Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC vs VfB Stuttgart
Hungarian Liga 1:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Diosgyori VTK
Fehervar vs Ujpest
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
HK vs FH
IA vs KA
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fjolnir Reykjavik
Breidablik Kopavogur vs Grotta
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Riteriai vs Suduva Marijampole
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid vs Eibar
Real Sociedad vs CA Osasuna
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Sirius vs Djurgarden
IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras
IFK Norrkoping vs Kalmar FF
Orebro vs AIK Solna
Hammarby vs Ostersunds FK
Swiss Schweizer Pokal:
Lausanne Sport vs FC Basel
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Konyaspor
Rizespor vs Galatasaray
Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Ankaragucu
Enjoy your free betting tips!