Arles vs OGC Nice
FreeAfter a disappointing day in France, today we turn our attention towards…France. Yes, we’re going back to France as there does appear to be some decent value there tonight and let’s face it – there’s not a lot else going on with Christmas just a few days away.
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Ligue 1 relegation battle between Arles and OGC Nice. Neither side has impressed this season after Nice sold star striker Remy and Arles attempted to endure their first season in Ligue 1 following promotion last year without success.
Arles will have to battle their way to three points in games like this if they do intend to stay in the division. Unfortunately, they’ll have to do that tonight without their captain Piocelle, who is suspended. With Arles eight points away from safety in the Christmas period, the future does look bleak for the Avignon-based outfit. Nevertheless, Arles are remaining relentlessly chipper and upbeat regarding the whole situation and have improved a lot lately, in my opinion. They cannot glaze over the fact that they’re not good enough to be in Ligue 1, regrettably. However, what they have been doing lately is making life harder for their opponents via some rapidly-acquired experience in Ligue 1. Arles have managed that particularly well at home, where only LOSC Lille and Girondins de Bordeaux have won in the past two months despite Arles hosting mighty Olympique Lyonnais along the way. Arles have only failed to find the net in one out of their last five home games but have scored seven times – not a bad record at all for a side that is comfortably bottom of the table.
Arles aren’t short on pace – it’s the final product that lets them down, more often than not. It’s quite a frustrating scenario for Arles fans, I imagine, with the potential in front of them but the execution leaving a lot to be desired. That said, I think Arles are beginning to benefit from the experience of ex-West Ham United striker Kaba Diawara in attack. At thirty-five years of age, he’s hardly at the pinnacle of his career but it’s no coincidence that Arles have started to play better football since his return. When he’s the target man with Ivorian Dja Djedje is supporting him, Arles can actually look a fairly decent team and that’s what I’m expecting to occur today. Lille found that out recently in Arles’ last home game and the visitors in that encounter needed a last-ditch goal to secure the victory against ten-man Arles. With the most potent and in-form side in Ligue 1 struggling here, not to mention the likes of Olympique Lyonnais, I can’t help but feel that a second home win of the campaign is only around the corner for hosts Arles.
Could OGC Nice be the side to succumb to that defeat? If their continually ineffectual attacking is maintained then I don’t see why not. OGC Nice welcome back Fae and Civelli to boost their midfield and defence respectively but it’s their attack that is the concern here. You can look at Nice’s recent record and admire that they’re unbeaten in four games or you can look at the fact that they’ve scored in just four out of their last nine Ligue 1 games and wonder just what this club’s secret plan is to avoid the drop ’cause they can’t do it like this, surely? Defence is integral to do anything in any league – everyone knows that – but you have to score goals to avoid relegation too and Nice simply haven’t done that since the departure of Remy. Indeed, Nice have scored an appalling one goal over their last eight Ligue 1 away games and I firmly believe that if they didn’t have a good defence then they’d be joint-bottom of the table with their hosts today – that’s the sole difference between them currently.
Both sides function as complete units but Nice are going to struggle with that today as Coulibaly is missing from midifeld and Ospina (their number one goalkeeper) are both out. As Nice are a functional defensive unit, both of these losses are hefty to them and they could suffer here. There’s no doubt in my mind that a semi-decent Arles will pepper the Nice goal tonight with Nice looking to hit them on the break but with no Ospina in goal, Nice could suffer here. If they fall behind then I really fear for them as I don’t see them having the firepower to get back in it, even against one of the worst defences in Ligue 1.
For me, pricing Nice at such short odds to win this game is a joke! They’ve won once away from home this season and are frankly a terrible away side and yet the bookies seem to think that making them 23/20 to win this game is a good idea! Arles have really improved lately, especially on their own turf, and backing them to win this do-or-die game with draw no bet cover at 5/4 against one of the most impotent sides in Ligue 1 looks a gift to me tonight.
Team news – Arles miss Abenzoar, Piocelle, and Jamel Ait Ben Idir whereas OGC Nice miss Hellebuyck, Ospina, Quansah, Coulibaly, Bagayoko, and Mabiala.
Verdict: Arles to win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
China vs Republic of Macedonia – home win at 11/20.
This one follows on from the preview I gave a few days ago for the China vs Estonia game. China have a lot of friendlies lined up which they’re taking seriously with a good number of first-team players in their squad, not to mention experienced players. They’re also playing at home, which means that they can’t afford any half-assed displays. They demonstrated that by beating Estonia 3-0 and a similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me either. Republic of Macedonia, much like Estonia, are treating this game as an experiment of sorts. There’s no Pandev, Mitreski, Shumulikoski, Tasevski, Naumoski, Popov etc. Instead, Republic of Macedonia have drafted in a squad of eighteen to face China in China today, eight of which have never played for their country before. None of them have more than eight caps to their name and only Mojsov and Alimi have played more than five times for their country. A good number of their squad plays its football within the Republic of Macedonia and the majority of them have never played football professionally outside of their country. Not only will this game in China be a culture shock for them but they’re also not good enough to take on what is virutally a full Chinese team of experienced internationals here. The only player to gift Macedonia any insight here is Karcev, who plays his football with Shanghai East Asia, so he’ll have an idea of what they’re up against today. Don’t get me wrong here – I rate the Macedonia team as being marginally better than the Estonia team that played in China a few days ago – but they’re still not as good as their hosts. You can take the -1.5 goal handicap if you feel brave – I personally don’t have enough faith in China’s attack to do that – but the home win at 11/20 looks a steal today as China should be much shorter with the above information in mind.
Verdict: China to win at 11/20.
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Stade Rennais – Stade Rennais to keep a clean sheet at 31/20.
Stade Malherbe de Caen welcome back Lazarevic but lose Marcq and Tafforeau for this game so much like Caen’s season thus far, there was a positive but it’s now been swamped with negatives!
Caen have finally discovered that the Ligue 1 season is not over within two months; it lasts a lot longer than that. Motivation against big clubs like Marseille and Lyon at the start of the season was very easy with Caen keen to make an impression but now that reality has hit home that Caen have to produce that kind of display every week just to stay in Ligue 1, they’re starting to struggle. They’ve not won for twelve consecutive Ligue 1 games now, losing eight times along the way. The mood in the Caen camp is low and understandably so as nothing is going right for them. They’ve not scored for three consecutive games now as even attacking duo El-Arabi and Yatabare have looked demoralised and ineffectual lately. Caen don’t have their energy, most importantly, and that is what’s crippling them. It’s one thing to play badly and claim a 0-0 draw; that’s a bad day at the office. It’s another thing entirely, however, to not put any effort in and lose 0-3 at home to a club like Sochaux, which is what happened a couple of weeks ago. Sochaux are a mid-table side at best and they’re infamous in France for being poor away from home so that result is totally unacceptable. Caen could have been forgiven with their impressive start to the season that avoiding the drop was a foregone conclusion but much to their horror, they’re sliding closer towards it day by day. They’ve not scored in five out of their last seven home games in Ligue 1; why should that record break today against one of Ligue 1’s better sides?
I can’t see a reason why and that’s why I’m backing Rennes to keep a clean sheet here. I’m a big advocate of Rennes; their well-organised side is one of the hardest to beat in Ligue 1 on their day. Indeed, had they coupled their current side with the deadly duo of Bangoura and Gyan that they had a couple of years back then I genuinely believe that they’d have the best side in France currently but it wasn’t to be with both strikers departing. It’s quite remarkable just how well Rennes are doing really, if you consider the players that have left this side this year! They’ve sold Gyan to Sunderland, Briand to Lyon, Bocanegra to Saint-Etienne, and even sold Fanni to Marseille earlier this month. These are some bloody big names for Rennes but they’ve not flinched; they’ve remained as composed as ever and ironically look even more immortal with every sale made. I’d be concerned about the ineffectual displays of summer signing Montano in attack if Rennes intend to aim for a European place as he doesn’t score enough goals but for today’s tip, that’s somewhat irrelevant, although it does shed light on why I prefer the hosts not to score rather than backing the straight away win! Rennes’ strength is in midfield with experienced duo Leroy and Dalmat, battling Tettey, and skilful Brahimi providing all the necessary support for both their attack and defence respectively. Although Rennes miss first-choice goalkeeper Douchez tonight, they’re still a complete unit elsewhere in the team so I expect a solid Rennes display here, just as we’ve seen for the majority of their campaign thus far.
Rennes are unbeaten in four games now, impressively keeping four clean sheets along the way. Even more impressively, they’ve faced both Olympique de Marseille and Girondins de Bordeaux away from home during that time so Rennes know how to keep sides out – it’s something that they’re naturally good at, seemingly! They’ve got the best defensive record in the division and average conceding just over a goal per every two away games this season, which is a superb record. Only AS Monaco have scored less goals at home than Caen have this season so if you put the two pieces of information together, we have a Rennes clean sheet on the horizon. I was tempted to back the away win here but I just don’t see why it would be better to do that than to back a Rennes clean sheet here; the away win is 29/20 and the clean sheet is bizarrely 31/20! Rennes are not reliable in attack but they certainly are in defence so my call is for Caen not to score in this game tonight.
Team news – Caen miss Marcq and Tafforeau whereas Rennes miss Douchez, Souprayen, Apam, and Marveaux.
Verdict: Stade Rennais to keep a clean sheet at 31/20.
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Paris Saint-Germain – away win at 23/20.
Unbeaten in four consecutive games now, Nancy bring strong momentum into this game and will undoubtedly give PSG a game as a result. However, Nancy’s problem this season is that they’re terribly vulnerable in defence, which is well illustrated by their record of conceding under two goals per home game on average. Indeed, they’ve bizarrely conceded more at home than they have away from home so you can see where their Achilles heel is. They’ve lost five out of nine Ligue 1 home games this season and look likely to do so again tonight if they continue to fail to find the net in their home games, something that they currently average doing less than once per home game. Nancy have done well lately but they’ve not had any great tests, I’d say, but a resurrected PSG side should have every chance of showing them how hard Ligue 1 can truly be if they play as well tonight as they have done for the majority of their current campaign. With Chretian missing in defence for Nancy, you have to fancy the prowling beasts of PSG to take advantage here, especially with playmaker Nene is such scintillating form. The Brazilian midfielder has carried PSG at times this season with some wonderful displays and he’ll be integral tonight if they’re to win. Happily, PSG only miss Armand for tonight’s game, which although is a blow from an importance point of view, it’s not too important as PSG are poor in defence anyway, in my opinion. I’d be more concerned if they were missing deadly striker Hoarau or the afore-mentioned Nene for a game like this where I don’t expect the hosts to trouble them much from an attacking perspective. PSG were held to a disappointing 2-2 draw at home to old rivals AS Monaco in their last Ligue 1 game and will be keen to bounce back tonight. They’ve won the local derby with Valenciennes and have drawn at giants Olympique Lyonnais in their last two away games to demonstrate what PSG are genuinely capable of so I do fancy them to win this game tonight.
Quality-wise, PSG will win this battle every time. France is not a friend of the away win, however, so do bet with caution here instead of being blinded by the “big name” versus “the nobodies”. Nancy have done well lately because they’ve been compact but I don’t envision PSG allowing them to do that tonight. If they do then this game can easily be a draw but Nancy have lost a lot of home games this season because they don’t have the midfield to dominate games and dictate the tempo whereas an opponent like PSG does. PSG will want an open game here and if they get it, then I expect them to win this game comfortably. Either way, I expect PSG to monopolise possession so expect plenty of goals one way or another but for me, there’s value on a PSG win for as long as the odds remain above evens.
Team news – Nancy miss Bakar, Chahechouhe, Chretien, Diakite, and Bracigliano whereas PSG miss Armand.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to win at 23/20.
Accumulator fodder:
China.
Recommended bets:
Arles DNB and Paris Saint-Germain at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendlies:
China vs Republic of Macedonia (8) 2-0
Qatar vs Estonia (7) 2-1
Syria vs Iraq (5) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs North Queensland Fury (6) 2-1
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United (5) 1-2
French Ligue 1:
Arles vs OGC Nice (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Stade Brestois vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 0-1
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Stade Rennais (6) 0-1
LOSC Lille vs Saint-Etienne (7) 2-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre (7) 2-0
AS Monaco vs Sochaux (4) 1-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 1-2
Valenciennes vs Toulouse (6) under 2.5 goals
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Racing Club Lens (7) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Hibernian (4) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!