Basel vs AS Roma
FreeToday’s featured game is between Swiss side Basel and Italy’s AS Roma. Most people will be avoiding this game like the plague given Luciano Spalletti’s surprise resignation a couple of weeks ago, the loss of Alberto Aquilani over summer and persistent financial problems. However, I’m going to plunge in head-first because despite the odds not being quite as valuable as some of my other tips, they are very good odds when you compare these two sides overall. AS Roma have a bigger and better squad than Basel, regardless of their issues over summer. They’ve appointed experienced manager Claudio Ranieri in charge since the departure of Spalletti and he won his first game in charge 2-1 away to lowly Siena. It’s not so much the side they played that interests me but the fact that they came from a goal down to win the game, which shows mental strength, something AS Roma were always good with so it’s good to see Ranieri has maintained it thus far. What may have gone unnoticed behind the scenes (i.e. those that don’t read my blog!) is that Basel very much have problems of their own in that they’re just not nearly as much of a force as they used to be. Perhaps it’s generous to label them a “force” to begin with, but they at least used to be a handful for sides. Nowadays, Basel tend to be cannon fodder for Young Boys Bern and FC Zurich domestically. In European football, they’ve not really been tested as of yet this year – until now. Basel’s biggest weakness is conceding goals, something they do far too often. They’re fine scoring goals but conceding tends to be their downfall. In fact, my views on this game are very similar to those I posted on the FC Zurich vs Real Madrid game last night – they quality between the two sides is large and both prefer to attack. The only difference here is that AS Roma are a bit more sound defensively, which makes this game look even better to bet on. Effectively, even if AS Roma only partially turn up, I still thoroughly expect them to win this game with some ease. Basel are no longer good enough to trouble the Italians excessively although I wouldn’t be surprised to see both sides score in this game so it could be worth taking over 2.5 goals. However, my main bet of the day is an AS Roma away win at 5/6, which frankly looks a bargain!
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Basel vs AS Roma – away win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Poli Timisoara – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/6. Unless AFC Ajax Amsterdam draw a bizarre blank today, something which has only happened once this season, then I thoroughly expect them to win this game. With the attacking prowess available to them (i.e. Suarez, Sulejmani) they cannot fail to win this game in my eyes. Romanian FC Poli Timisoara have already demonstrated that they’re a tough side to beat but nothing more. They’re resilient and hard-working, two traits I don’t think I’ve ever seen missing from a Romanian side. However, AFC Ajax Amsterdam in the Amsterdam Arena are a real force, particularly when their players are double the quality of FC Poli Timisoara’s. The visitors will be happy to take a goalless draw from this game, if indeed anything. It’s an unwritten rule that to qualify from a group you must at least win all your home games and the experience of the Dutch side will no doubt leave them well aware of this fact. The most important factor of this bet is when the first goal is scored. If AFC Ajax Amsterdam score in the first-half then I can see this bet easily occurring. A draw at half-time won’t leave me overly confident because the Romanians really do dig their heels in away from home. However, odds of 5/6 on a home win with -1.75 handicap really has the potential to be a very good bet given the excellent form (and excellent goalscoring form) of AFC Ajax Amsterdam this season.
Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht – home win at 11/10. This is a very tough call but one that I’ve decided to take on. Dinamo Zagreb have been rising in terms of quality for some years now in Europe due to their large financial backing. They’ve dominated the Croatian Prva Liga for some time now with their only real challenge coming from Hajduk Split. Their academy has boasted the big names of Luka Modric, Vedran Corluka, Eduardo da Silva and Niko Kranjcar in the past to name a few so don’t underestimate their ability to bring through locals too. Well, as local as “Eduardo” can be, anyway!! Anyway, my point remains that they’re a good, strong side who score a lot and concede very few. They were unfortunate to lose out on the UEFA Champions League after being ousted by Salzburg of Austria and have already demolished Heart of Midlothian on this ground this season. Visitors Anderlecht interestingly boast one of their best squads in years but simply cannot go away from home in Europe without losing. They lost to an average Sivasspor in a dismaying fashion despite having won the home leg convincingly enough for the result to matter. They’ve also been ripped apart by a very good Olympique Lyonnais both home and away. There’s not a great deal between the two sides but I feel the above information does favour the hosts to a sufficient degree for me to back them at 11/10.
Genoa vs Slavia Prague – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/4. Hosts Genoa have impressed me greatly in the past few seasons. Their footballing mentality and ability are both very good. I like their approach of “we’ll score one more goal than you” and the talent available to them. The experience of Hernan Crespo in the squad is vital to them after their loss of Diego Militio over summer to Internazionale but equally as important is the pace that supports him from strikers such as Palacio. Overall, Genoa have a very potent attack and do love to make it count at home. In their domestic campaign so far, they’ve played two games, won them both and scored seven goals in the process. In fact, Genoa were one of the biggest goalscorers in Serie A at home last season as they averaged just over two goals per game. They’re hosting a tenacious Slavia Prague but one that is beginning to look a little devoid of talent and one that is beginning to look rather stretched currently. They’ve won just three games from their opening seven games in the Gambrinus Liga, which is somewhat unusual for the reigning champions. I think the loss of Tomas Necid, despite it being a good eight months since they lost him, has hurt them in terms of scoring goals. It’s fair to say that about the departure of any striker, realistically, but Slavia Prague have had to do without players before now because of their status in Europe. However, I just don’t feel they’ve ever properly replaced him and it’s beginning to show. I’ve already stated that I don’t think either Slavia Prague or Sparta Prague will win the Gambrinus Liga this year and form from both sides thus far suggests that my theory has a good foundation. Today is going to be a very difficult side for the Czechs as they travel to a very feisty Genoa. In a way, this game would be more difficult for Slavia Prague playing against Genoa than it would against AC Milan, in my opinion. Why? Genoa like to rough it and get in amongst sides whereas sides like AC Milan simply knock the ball around and a tenacious side like Slavia Prague may score some joy off them. Genoa are more than prepared to match the Czech’s work rate and have the potency to score at least two goals so I’ll be surprised if they don’t beat the -1.75 handicap at 5/4 today.
Rapid Vienna vs Hamburger SV – lay Hamburger SV at 11/10. This is quite a bold call given the impressive Bundesliga form of Hamburger SV but I’ve seen enough from Austrians Rapid Vienna to convince me that they’re more than capable of matching the Germans today. Hosts Rapid Vienna have already played three rounds of qualifiers prior to this encounter and have won all their home games with their most impressive victory being a 1-0 win against England’s Aston Villa. Despite the loss of Maierhofer, the hosts are still a presentable force that create chances and are good goalscorers. Visitors Hamburger SV have started their season well domestically but there’s something still missing since Martin Jol has left, in my opinion. They’ve not been tested properly in Europe yet with a simple draw against French Ligue 2 outfit Guingamp and Danish minnows Randers, against whom they managed to somehow lose the home leg 1-0. In my experience, German sides are generally dangerous to back in Europe due to their unreliability in beating “smaller” sides. There’s dozens of examples over the past few years where this can be observed from all of Germany’s big clubs competing in European football. The visitors are also missing Peruvian striker José Paolo Guerrero, who suffered cruciate ligament damage lately and will be missing for some months. Hamburger SV don’t look anywhere near as potent without him, in my opinion, particularly as he’s bagged four goals in four games for Hamburger SV this season. I expect a good game between these two sides but I think there’s value in laying Hamburger SV today at 11/10 due to the above information.
Hertha BSC Berlin vs FK Ventspils – under 2.5 goals at 5/4. This is another quite bold call but I’m convinced enough that FK Ventpils won’t score and the boring Hertha BSC Berlin won’t exceed two goals in this game. Four defeats in their opening five Bundesliga games shows that the hosts really aren’t in the best frame of mind for this game tonight. A cup run will do them good but a lack of momentum is going to damage them entering this game. They’ve already had to struggle past Denmark’s Brondby to reach this round and “struggle” is indeed the correct word. FK Ventspils have done quite well in their qualifiers having already overcome BATE Borisov of Belarus but having been overcome by Switzerland’s FC Zurich in the last round. Aside from the fact that they’re not good enough to match Hertha HSC Berlin, they’re also not big goalscorers. Their ability is very much reflective of the Latvian national team in that they’re little more than hard-workers with the occasional talented player. Given that Hertha BSC Berlin just don’t score many goals and are out form against a low-scoring lesser opponent FK Ventspils, under 2.5 goals looks a decent bet at 5/4.
CSKA Sofia vs Fulham – away win at 7/5. Fulham are starting to look a little stretched with the difficult task of competing on two fronts this year and having lost star striker Andy Johnson through injury for some time. For a small club like Fulham, this is indeed a hefty blow. Roy Hodgson has certainly boosted their numbers before the transfer window closed but he’s failed to really integrate them with the Fulham first team so the activity seems a little pointless – currently. However, Fulham undoubtedly have the better squad here with more experienced players in general despite hosts CSKA Sofia having more European experience as a team. Fulham showed great resilience at weekend to come from behind and overcome a difficult Everton 2-1 at Craven Cottage and this will have done their morale good. CSKA Sofia have been far from impressive in their ties with Derry City of the Republic of Ireland but did gain a credible result in Moscow against Dinamo Moscow. One thing that has been made painfully clear, however, is that they don’t enjoy scoring goals. Fulham aren’t the biggest goalscorers on the planet but they’re potent and efficient enough to score at least one and hold out for a 0-1 victory. I’m predicting a somewhat boring encounter but an efficient away win looks on the cards. 7/5 could well be a very good bet here today.
Lazio vs Salzburg – home win with -1.75 handicap at 11/10. I’ve had enough of backing Salzburg! They’ve let me down far too many times and I’m getting a strong impression that they’re just not good enough to compete at this level currently. They’ve struggled and battled their way fortunately to this round by beating Bohemians of the Republic of Ireland and Dinamo Zagreb of Croatia but were eventually undone by Israel’s Maccabi Haifa somewhat convincingly. The visitors just don’t have the squad to match Lazio, particularly in Rome. Hosts Lazio have looked impressive under Baldini with some very good players on their teamsheet, potent attacking football and energetic style. Barring a surprise defeat at Elfsborg Boras in the UEFA Europa League qualifier, they’ve scored in every competitive game they’ve played this season, including a 2-1 Supercoppa Italia victory over Internazionale. The striker partnership of Julio Cruz and Mauro Zarate looks destined to be a nightmare for defences both in and out of Italy with experience and pace combining effortlessly. Lazio have too good a squad to not win this game. They managed to beat a tough Elfsborg Boras of Sweden 3-0 here in a qualifier earlier on this campaign and I think Salzburg would struggle to match the Swedes currently so taking Lazio to win with -1.75 handicap at 11/10 looks tempting.
Villarreal vs Levski Sofia – under 2.5 goals at 11/8. As expected, Villarreal are struggling without Pellegrini in charge. How can that be a surprise when he shaped this small club into a real force? It’ll be like when Arsene Wenger leaves Arsenal. They battled to a 1-1 draw at home to Real Mallorca at weekend, a side who are little more than a feeder club these days. They’ve disposed of a decent NAC Breda of Holland convincingly in their European campaign already this year but that is their only competitive success (in both legs) as they’ve drawn both domestic games 1-1, of which they should be winning at least one. They’re finding life hard against decent sides and Levski Sofia fall into the category of a “decent side” in my book. The Bulgarians are going to come here and stick men behind the ball and hope for a 0-0 draw because that’s their style. The hosts don’t have an awful lot of players available to them capable of unlocking the Levski Sofia door so the under 2.5 goals call at 11/8 is beginning to look quite inviting, particularly as experienced midfielder Senna is out with injury. If the hosts are fended off sufficiently in the first half, I can see this bet being a nice little earner, particularly as Villarreal have the daunting away trip of Athletic Club de Bilbao to face at weekend. Obviously, do approach with caution as if the hosts do manage to somehow turn it on, this could be a whitewash!
Steaua Bucharest vs Sheriff Tiraspol – home win with -1.75 handicap at 13/10. There’s no secret formula here – Steaua Bucharest are simply too good for Moldovans Sheriff Tiraspol. Don’t be fooled by Sheriff Tiraspol’s low amount of goals conceded away to Olympiakos Piraeus – the Greeks were in turbulent times with both playing staff and non-playing staff, something exemplified perfectly by the sacking of Georgian manager Temuri Kestbaia after just months in charge a few days ago. Steaua Buchraest have been ruthless in this competition so far and I thoroughly expect that to continue tonight. Taking the home win with -1.75 handicap at 13/10 looks a good call for me!
SL Benfica vs BATE Borisov – over 3.5 goals at 7/4. I like BATE Borsiov but their recent form has been poor. They’re not looking their usual efficient selves which leads me into this bet. SL Benfica have been magical so far this season with some vibrant goalscoring displays and boast an attacking wealth that most sides would kill for. The Portuguese hosts have smashed in fourteen goals in four domestic games so far and have scored five goals in two European games. Visitors BATE Borisov have scored in all three of their away games in European competition this season so we seem set for a clash involving a lot of goals! What I really don’t want to see is BATE Borisov sitting back and letting SL Benfica play with the ball for too long because it will nullify the game. I expect both sides to go for this and neither are great defensively in Europe so over 3.5 goals looks a distinct possibility at 7/4.
Everton vs AEK Athens – under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Everton have been very unconvincing this season on most fronts, partially due to the controversy surrounding Joleon Lescott’s big money move to Manchester City and partially due to them not entering their rhythm currently. In domestic terms, they’ve average just one goal per game this season and despite them scoring four past Czech Republic’s Sigma Olomouc, I don’t fancy their chances of emulating that against Greece’s AEK Athens. The Greeks are considerably more organised than the Czechs and are generally very difficult to play against. Everton are struggling to score goals and have just lost influential and experience Captain Phil Neville through injury for some time. The Greeks don’t travel well or score goals often so basically I forsee a very dull and narrow home win here. Taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks a very good bet in my eyes.
Club Brugge vs Shakhtar Donetsk – away win at 10/11. This is a dubious call but I like the look of it because Club Brugge have been poor so far this season despite some of their results. They’ve struggled at home in all of their games in both competitions, particularly with goalscoring. They’ve laboured narrow victories over Poland’s Lech Poznan and Finland’s FC Lahti in this competition already, sides they should be beating comfortably. Whereas Shakhtar Donetsk aren’t firing on all cylinders yet themselves, they’re a mark above the Belgians so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare tonight. Shakhtar Donetsk are considerably more efficient and potent than Club Brugge and although they have lost defensive stalwart Dmytro Chygrynskiy to Barcelona, they’re still more than good enough to win this game against a mediocre Club Brugge. It should be a decent game but I thoroughly believe that Shakhtar Donetsk will capitalise on a leaky Club Brugge defence and a confused Club Brugge squad by winning and odds of 11/10 look interesting on this game.
Sparta Prague vs PSV Eindhoven – away win at 13/10. I wondered why PSV Eindhoven were 13/10 to win this game and I’m still wondering now. Sparta Prague are weaker than they have been in years and their domestic form shows that. They’ve done quite well in Europe with a home win against Panathinaikos (before crashing out in the return leg) and two wins against Slovenia’s Maribor without conceding a goal. However, PSV Eindhoven have been absolutely ruthlessly efficient in beating just about all opponents so far this season, usually with low-scoring wins. In fact, they’ve played four European games so far this season and won all of them 1-0. The games weren’t overly difficult but they were potential banana skins against Bulgaria’s Cherno More Varna and Israel’s Bnei-Yehuda Tel-Aviv. Sparta Prague are a little better than both of those sides but the ability in PSV Eindhoven’s squad tells me that an away win is on the cards, particularly given PSV Eindhoven’s impressive form in general. Frankly, an away win here at 13/10 was a contender for game of the day today!
CD Nacional vs Werder Bremen – lay Werder Bremen at 10/11. This is quite a risky call but CD Nacional have already proven their worth by overcoming Russia’s Zenit St Petersburg 6-2 on aggregate, winning the home leg 4-2. They’re amongst Portugal’s top five or six sides, in my opinion, but they’re no world beaters. Ironically, they’re probably what I would dub as the Portuguese version of Werder Bremen. The visitors are a capable side but a lot less capable without the talented Diego, who was sold in summer to Juventus. They’re hard-workers but concede far too many goals in Europe. Bizarrely, they leaked three goals at home to Kazakh side Aktobe Lento and can be classed as “unreliable” on most accounts, as are most German sides in Europe. I think they’ll find a tough match in Madeira tonight and perhaps a scrappy game that will yield a few chances for either side but with no great football game on show. For the hosts, this is their cup final. They almost never reach the European stage and will put their lives on the line for this game. Werder Bremen have enough European experience to appreciate that a draw will be gratefully received against a feisty CD Nacional side that will be well-motivated for this game. With the above in mind, laying Werder Bremen in a game they don’t have to win at 10/11 looks an interesting bet.
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Austria Vienna – both sides to score at 10/11, over 2.5 goals at 4/5. Hosts Athletic Club de Bilbao haven’t quite adjusted to European football just yet but they’re doing what they do best – working their arses off! They’ve not played a European game at home without conceding so far this season, losing 1-0 to Young Boys Bern and winning a thrilling encounter with Tromso of Norway 3-2. They’re a typical Spanish side in the sense that they love to attack and generally forget to defend. I’ve not seen Athletic Club de Bilbao play as well as they have done so far this season for some time, however. They’ve battered Espanyol in the league but somehow managed to win by just a sole goal. Barring the home defeat against Young Boys Bern, they’ve scored in every game. Striker Fernando Llorente is looking a potent threat as usual and the impressive Oscar de Marcos is looking a real threat to all opposition. Visitors Austria Vienna are a decent side and have scored an average of two goals per game in their domestic campaign this season. They’ve scored at least one goal in all four European games they’ve played in so far and I can’t see that record slipping today against a shaky Athletic Club de Bilbao defence. Effectively, this should be a very open and goal-filled game with the above facts in mind so taking both sides to score at 10/11 and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 both look very good bets in my book.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Poli Timisoara (9) -1.75 handicap
Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht (7) 2-1
LOSC Lille vs Valencia (6) draw no bet
Genoa vs Slavia Prague (9) -1.75 handicap
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Celtic (7) 1-1
Rapid Vienna vs Hamburger SV (5) lay Hamburger SV
Hertha BSC Berlin vs FK Ventspils (7) under 2.5 goals
Heerenveen vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) draw no bet
CSKA Sofia vs Fulham (7) under 2.5 goals
Basel vs AS Roma (8) over 2.5 goals
Panathinaikos vs Galatasaray (6) both sides to score
Sturm Graz vs Dinamo Bucharest (8) 1-1
Lazio vs Salzburg (9) -1.75 handicap
Villarreal vs Levski Sofia (8) under 2.5 goals
Fenerbahce vs FC Twente Enschede (7) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Steaua Bucharest vs Sheriff Tiraspol (9) -1.75 handicap
SL Benfica vs BATE Borisov (8) over 3.5 goals
Everton vs AEK Athens (7) under 2.5 goals
Club Brugge vs Shakhtar Donetsk (6) 1-2
Partizan Belgrade vs Toulouse (6) 1-1
Sparta Prague vs PSV Eindhoven (7) 0-1
CFR Cluj vs FC Copenhagen (5) 1-1
CD Nacional vs Werder Bremen (6) 2-1, lay Werder Bremen
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Austria Vienna (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Copa Nissan Sudamericana:
Lanus vs River Plate (Arg) (7) 1-0
Chinese Super League:
Hangzhou Lucheng vs Changsha Ginde (6) 1-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Skonto Riga vs Blazma Rezekne (9) -1.75 handicap
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Olimps Riga (9) -1.75 handicap
Dinaburg Daugavpils vs Tranzits Ventspils (8) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Super Reds vs Tampines Rovers (6) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs Gefle (8) 1-1
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