TFT Issue 105!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
And today’s fixed game (a.k.a. game to avoid) is Vicenza vs Pescara so stay away!
The bin
LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I was pretty happy with this as most people underestimate LASK when they’re playing in Linz so the odds are good. However, Sturm Graz miss Purcher, Standfest, and Feldhofer for this game, which is three-quarters of their defence so I’m not touching this game at all!
Lokeren vs Club Brugge – away win at evens.
I was quite happy with this as Lokeren’s thin squad has been stretched lately and they’ve nothing left to play for. However, Club Brugge’s strikers generally need carrying by their midfield so the news that midfielders Vargas, Blondel, Geraerts, and Dalmat are all out has put me off entirely. As good as Croatian starlet Perisic undoubtedly is, I’m not touching this one. The sooner Club Brugge complete the signing of NEC Nijmegen striker Bjorn Vleminckx the better!
Banik Ostrava vs Usti nad Labem – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Banik have been immense lately whereas doomed Usti nad Labem have been feeble. Banik need to secure survival in the Gambrinus Liga and their recent displays have shown their determination to do so. However, despite the return of arguably their best midfielder Frejlach, they miss Frantis, Reznik, and Husbauer whilst having doubts over Zeher – too many regulars there, for my liking, so I’m avoiding the handicap although Banik should still win.
Double chance
1X:
Austria Vienna
Montana
Colo Colo
Split
Banik Ostrava
Slovan Liberec
El Nacional Quito
Viikingit Helsinki
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05
Kaposvari Rakoczi
AC Milan
Flota Swinoujscie
SL Benfica
Lokomotiv Moscow
Senica
Olimpija Ljubljana
Featured game
Spartak Trnava vs Dukla Banska Bystrica – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Corgon Liga encounter between Spartak Trnava and Dukla Banska Bystrica. Both sides have been fighting for UEFA Europa League places next season but it’s only a realistic dream for Spartak Trnava at the present time.
The hosts have been dominant at home this season. Only league leaders Slovan Bratislava have conceded less goals at home than they have and only the current top three in the Corgon Liga have scored more than they have at home this season. The hosts average scoring over 1.5 goals per home game and have won their last four home games in the Corgon Liga consecutively. Indeed, only league leaders Slovan Bratislava have taken points off Spartak Trnava in Trnava since the winter break, winning here 1-3 and almost doubling the number of goals that Spartak Trnava have conceded at home this season in doing so. Since then, Spartak have gone from strength to strength, scoring ten goals in four games and beating rivals MSK Zilina along the way. They’ve won three consecutive games ahead of this encounter so momentum favours the hosts and given that Spartak have won five out of their last seven home games against Dukla Banska Bystrica, I fancy them to continue their usual trend by winning today.
It aids my bet massively that Dukla are really under-strength for this game. I mean, they’ve already lost half of their Corgon Liga away games this season due to averaging scoring less than a goal per away game. They rely excessively on their solid defence on the road but that could and should change today. Why? Well, Dukla have not only just found out that they are unable to play UEFA Europa League football next season but they’ve also had key defenders Adamik and Savic ruled out for this game. Additionally, number one goalkeeper Boros is out, not to mention leading goalscorer Hesek and attacking midfielder Vajda. Dukla simply don’t have the depth to deal with those absences and considering how poor their attack is on the road, I just don’t see them scoring against Spartak’s iron defence. Additionally, they’re going to find it very hard to do their usual “Plan B” by sitting back and defending so they’re in a bad way here.
Since the winter break, Dukla have lost four out of their five away games in the Corgon Liga with the sole exception being the draw at Ruzomberok last match, which occurred because Ruzomberok failed to find the net. Dukla have been conceding heavily on the road and I expect that to continue today. If Spartak were more incisive and I were more greedy then I’d go for a cheeky -1.5 handicap here. However, I’m perfectly happy with the win as it is because there does look to be some serious value on the home win at 9/10.
Team news – Spartak Trnava miss Ciprys and Petras whilst having doubts over Diallo whereas Dukla Banska Bystrica miss Boros, Adamik, Savic, Hesek, and Vajda.
Verdict: Spartak Trnava to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna – home win at evens.
Hosts Lokomotiv Sofia are still clinging to faint hopes of a UEFA Europa League place next season although that will largely depend on whether CSKA Sofia’s players all suddenly die or not.
Nonetheless, the Railwaymen wouldn’t be forgiven by their fans if they gave up now so I expect a full-blooded display today by Lokomotiv. I’ve highlighted their striker issues innumerate times this season but they’re finally learning to live without their talismanic threesome as Yordanov has stepped up to the plate. Loko do still need a striker in summer but they’re coping quite well for the present time, especially with heavy contribution from Dafchev and Pisarov in midfield, not to mention his associates Goranov and Dyakov. Loko have an additional energy about them at the moment and a belief that is guiding them to good display after good display. They’re noticing their absence of firepower mostly on the road but at home they’ve won three out of their last three A PFG games, including a win against the odds against Chernomorets Burgas as the visitors had taken the lead with just a short part of the game remaining but Loko turned it around and won 2-1. Loko’s defence isn’t the most reliable but they’ve kept two clean sheets in their last three home games and given the spirit at the club at the moment, I fancy them to upset Cherno More Varna today.
Cherno More Varna are the absolute epitome of a “home side” in Bulgarian football. These guys play about 30% as well away from home as they do at home, which never ceases to amaze me. As far as quality goes, Cherno More are a good side but the fact that they average scoring over a goal per game more at home than they do away tells a story all by itself. Defensively, Cherno More are usually solid enough – they just tend to struggle against the better sides in the A PFG but aside from that, they’re generally free to dictate their games as they see fit. Just look at their goalscoring record lately, though – they’ve scored in two games out of their last five! It’s just not good enough for a club that is very much capable of better. I’ll hand it to Cherno that they’ve done well on the road since the winter break, only losing at Levski Sofia in their past six away games, but I sense that may be about to change today. The visitors miss influential defender Ademar and attacking midfielder Daniel Georgiev for this game, both of which are subsequent disadvantages. Ademar organises the defence usually and although Iliev and Atansov can handle the burden that Georgiev’s absence leaves, it’s still far from ideal for a side that struggles to score away from home as it is.
I therefore feel that we’ve got a home win on the cards for this game. Loko will be able to batter their way to the goal and score at least once against Cherno More as there’s no Ademar whereas there’s not as much pressure on their own defence due to the absence of Georgiev. I expect a tight game with few goals but Loko are the value bet here, I feel.
Team news – Cherno More Varna miss Ademar, R.Kolev, Daniel Georgiev, and Stoyanov.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Sofia to win at evens.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia – lay Levski Sofia at evens.
I don’t like going against Levski Sofia because they’re capable of beating any side in Bulgaria on their day. However, I have no choice but to do so today as they’re priced criminally short to win at Loko Plovdiv, where no side has won this season. Not only did Loko Plovdiv win at Levski Sofia earlier this season but Levski have only won once in their last three away games against Loko because Loko are a hard side to beat nowadays. They’re not a giant club – yet – but they’re still a real force and I find it unbelievable that the bookies have given such short odds on Levski. Levski are a very good attacking side and they’ll be buoyant after their essential 2-0 win against league leaders Litex Lovech but they have to keep winning and against Loko Plovdiv, that’s not a very easy thing to do. The big problem Levski have at the moment is keeping sides from scoring against them away from home. They’ve won their last two away games in a row, admittedly, but they’ve conceded four goals whilst doing so, despite facing goal-shy Beroe and Pirin Blagoevgrad respectively. If they try that tactic at Loko Plovdiv then I’m sure they won’t win. They’ve still got a better team than Loko Plovdiv, don’t get me wrong, but these odds can’t be right. We also have to bear in mind that Levski miss essential defenders Mulder and Minev for this game and in my world, that means Levski will concede at least once here. Both Litex and Lokomotiv Sofia have failed to win at Plovdiv this season and the hosts love to upset the big sides in the A PFG so I’m recommending laying Levski Sofia at evens.
Team news – Levski Sofia miss Mulder and V.Minev.
Verdict: Lay Levski Sofia at evens.
Bogdanka Leczna vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz – home win at 13/10.
I’m not entirely sure where the bookies get these odds from, either. Atypically, a mid-table side like Leczna would have nothing to play for here but this side does. Since being taken over by a pretty attractive model, Leczna’s players are playing for the future because there’s a lot of money behind the club now to invest in new players so it’s no wonder their form has rocketed upward since the mid-season break, especially with a few experienced Ekstraklasa additions in midfield. They were unlucky to lose against Warta Poznan last match, outplaying their wealthy opponents but failing to do the necessary damage in front of goal. Let’s note that Leczna have won eight out of fourteen Liga 1 home games this season though. They’ve only lost four home games during that run and look at who they’ve lost against – Pogon Szczecin (under-performing but good side), LKS Lodz (league leaders), Flota Swinoujscie (promotion contenders), and Warta Poznan (will most likely be promoted after the end of the next season) – it’s not a criminal list, is it? Most other sides fail to score here and thus a single goal is often enough for Leczna to win here. Given their talented squad and ability to keep sides out, I fancy the hosts to win this one and prove to their beloved model that they merit a place in this squad next season.
Sandecja have surprised me this season – they’ve played really well, and even pushed for promotion for part of the season. However, that promotion dream is now beyond them mathematically and thus I don’t think we’ll see as much of a “driven” display as we’ve come to expect from today’s visitors in recent times. Sandecja generally defend well away from home but don’t score many, hence not winning as many away games as the three sides that are above them in the table. Bad news for the visitors today too on that front – star striker Aleksander misses out as he’s injured. The only alternative is midfielder Kukol, who has had a very good campaign, but it generally takes something special to score against Leczna and this Sandecja side lack motivation and lack a good striker today so I’m not sure they’ll do it.
Therefore, I see value in the home win at 13/10. It’s not a banker by any stretch of the imagniation but I’m sure you can see why I fancy it today.
Team news – Sandecja Nowy Sacz miss Aleksander and have doubts over Wozniak.
Verdict: Bogdanka Leczna to win at 13/10.
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I’m not sure why the unders is so generously-priced here but I’m happy to ride it. Vorskla’s pitch is generally quagmire and their sour defensive tactics tend to make games here a borefest at the most complimentary of times. With the above in mind, is it any surprise last seven visits to Vorskla have all gone under 2.5 goals? Shakhtar’s Donbass Arena is ideal for their Barcelona-esque football i.e. short passes but Vorskla’s ground is something of a rugby pitch so they tend to struggle here. Vorskla have had a long time to prepare for this game whereas Shakhtar have had to play Dnipro a few days ago in the Cup, triumphing 2-1 but another fixture in a long season can often be tiring. Additionally, Shakhtar are officially champions – they don’t have to win this game so why go all out? Barring the Cup Final a couple of years ago, the last eight games between these two sides has gone under 2.5 goals at either ground with Vorksla’s anti-football tactics and Shakhtar’s inability to play on shit pitches so I expect yet another boring under here.
Don’t enter the 1×2 market here – there’s no value whatsoever with no motivation and a crap pitch. However, unders really appeal to me here. Not only because of the above information, although that information absolutely lends a helping hand! No, I also like the absences for Shakhtar as no Eduardo denies them an alternative in attack. The most beautiful news is the absence of Chyngrynskiy and Rakitskiy, however. Why is that beautiful, you ask? Well, the Ukrainian FA brought in a new rule in January stating that each club must field at least four Ukrainian players in each game. That won’t be a problem next season for Shakhtar – I’m sure they’ll buy players in summer – but it is a problem in their atypical starting eleven. The absence of those two means that Shakhtar have to chop and change players to meet the legislation of the Ukrainian FA and thus we’ll probably see Kucher and Shevchuk in defence somewhere. However, they now have to use more Ukrainian players somewhere – Pyatov in goal and…? I suspect Stepanenko, Vitsenets, or Gai will step into midfield but that means one of the Brazilians drops out and that subsequently means Shakhtar have less attacking power.
Therefore, it’s under 2.5 goals all the way for me here!
Team news – Shakhtar Donetsk miss Eduardo, Chygrynskiy, and Rakitskiy.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.