TFT Issue 486!
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Featured game
Barcelona vs Real Madrid – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Spanish Super Cup first leg between Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Let’s forget the opening game of the Primera Liga for each side, shall we? It’s misleading to compare Real Sociedad to Real Madrid and to compare Valencia CF to Barcelona.
What does interest me, however, is two aspects. One is hunger and the other is consistency. Now, as much as I respect Real Madrid, I think that they worked harder than ever before to win the title last season and full credit must go to them for that. Can they realistically expect to reproduce that hunger this time around, though? I would be surprised to see it as it’s very hard to do. Barcelona, on the other hand, have that hunger bred into them from a young age and thus anything but success is a big failure to them.
The other aspect is consistency, as I’ve mentioned. I hate to read a lot into pre-season displays but what I’ve seen from Barcelona and Real Madrid shows that Barcelona are ready and raring to go this season with David Villa back in action (which is a massive boost) whilst Real Madrid looked a bit too happy to rest on their laurels with their Primera Liga trophy.
Now, that’s not to say that Barcelona will run riot here because of the above as both sides are very good sides, as we all know. However, Barcelona do play better football than Real Madrid and they’re a more consistent side, especially at the current time. I think that they’ll be very hungry to win this game following Real Madrid’s win here last season and they’ve got the personnel to damage their bitter rivals.
Therefore, I do find value in taking Barcelona to win this one at 4/5.
Verdict: Barcelona to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Molde FK vs Heerenveen – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
A lot of people will be tempted to take Molde to win this one given the sales that Heerenveen have had to endure. I would partially agree that Heerenveen are weaker here but not entirely agree as Molde aren’t as good as most people think.
I rate Molde very highly in the Eliteserien and I think that they’re capable of scoring goals against most sides in this competition. As they demonstrated against Basel, though, they’re inexperienced, lacking in composure, and concede goals too easily. Molde are an entertaining side to watch, if nothing else, and I expect them to trouble Heerenveen today, especially as they’re mid-season in their domestic campaign. Molde have the pace and power to really upset Heerenveen; make no mistake about it. I would be a little cautious in the sense that Molde tend to be a bit too rash and devoid of composure when it comes to putting the ball in the net but the rest of their game really suits the “over 2.5 goals” mould and that is comforting. Heerenveen have looked shaky at the back so far and rather weak in front of goal but that should change here. Molde are the weakest side (defensively) that they’ve encountered this season and the likes of Djuricic should be able to make something happen, even with new signing Finnbogason not able to feature and the lethal trio of Narsingh, Dost, and Assaidi nothing but memories. Heerenveen are good enough to score a goal from somewhere but they’re also vulnerable enough to suffer in Norway if Molde take their chances.
Either way, I really fancy over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Dinamo Bucharest vs Metalist Kharkiv – away win at 7/5.
Maybe this one will blow up in my face (as UEFA Europa League games often do!!) but the odds just look ridiculously wrong for this game.
As far as playing away from home goes, there really aren’t many more accomplished sides than Ukraine’s Metalist Kharkiv. They always score goals and they’re exceptionally good at holding leads. There are lots of quality players in this Metalist side with Argentinian threesome Blanco, Torres, and especially Sosa in midfield – that’s not even looking at Cleiton Xavier of Brazil! Cristaldo and new signing Willian are more than capable goalscorers. There’s a bit of samba in their full-back areas but Metalist are generally very solid and dependable, which is why it surprises me to see them so long against a disorganised and frankly average Dinamo Bucharest side. Almost all of Dinamo Bucharest’s good players have left nowadays (barring Alexe) and although it’s enough for their domestic league that they’re working hard, they’re simply not a very good side nowadays. Their defence is as horrendous as ever and although you could argue that Axente, Rus, Cristea, Munteanu, and Tucudean are capable players on their day, I just don’t see them having what it takes to defeat an experienced and dangerous European opponent such as Metalist. I think there’s a big difference between the two sides nowadays and thus 7/5 on the away win looks very generous to me.
Verdict: Metalist Kharkiv to win at 7/5.
Debreceni VSC vs Club Brugge – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Debreceni VSC may have failed to shatter a stiff BATE Borisov resolve in their last European home game but then again, their Belarusian opponents are very solid and hard to beat so it wasn’t a great surprise. Hungarian football is far from the pinnacle that it was once at and although Debreceni VSC are one of the leading Hungarian sides nowadays, there are only certain teams that they’re capable of showcasing their talent against.
Fortunately, Club Brugge are one of those sides, in my view. Debreceni VSC hate breaking solid defences down as they’re not patient enough to do it with any conviction. Put them up against a side that can’t defend and a side that they can counter-attack and you’ll see how good they can be. Club Brugge have both of those characteristics and therefore I feel they’re in for a rough night.
However, Club Brugge are the better side and they’ve invested heavily pre-season, which has allowed them to boast a rather formidable attack. Rafaelov has been absolutely immense so far; I’ve really been impressed with him. I think that Club Brugge are good enough to win this game as long as they keep their composure and play their usual game. With only new striker Tchite a doubt here, you have to expect them to do the business too.
In all honesty, though, I’d much rather avoid the 1×2 market as both sides have temperamental players that are capable of being dismissed at any time. I do like the look of over 2.5 goals at evens, though, especially with in-form Coulibaly and Sidibe up front for Debreceni VSC, the latter of which spent a number of years in Belgium playing for various clubs.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
HiFK Helsinki vs AC Oulu – away win at 4/5.
I won’t usually go against HiFK Helsinki at home but the time has come for them to attack or whimper their way to the Kakkonen. They’re too far behind everyone else to consider playing any kind of tactical game here; they simply have to attack. They’re the only side in the Ykkonen that is yet to win a home game despite having already played nine home games. They’ve got good support but they’re short of talent all over the pitch and unlike most of their fellow Ykkonen clubs, they’re simply unable to keep opponents out unless it’s a derby and in which case they’ll give 110% and cause an upset most of the time. You could blame absentees for their poor campaign but that’s something that every side has to overcome. For today’s game, they’ve got further problems as forwards Kibona, Antman, and Kastrati are all out, as is arguably their best player in Jukka Halme. There’s very little morale left in this struggling side and I don’t think they can avoid the drop now. They have to attack AC Oulu here and that will suit their opponents perfectly as they have lots of pace with which to counter them. HiFK may well score here but AC Oulu have Stafsula, Zeze, and Sohlo to attack them with, which completely dwarfs the threat of the home side and will cause no end of problems to their awful defence. AC Oulu are not a great away side and could well concede here (that usually underpins their away days) but I’m going to be surprised if they don’t outscore a side that they’re simply a lot better than, hence my call of the away win at 4/5.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Levante – Rios and Juanfran are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Muniain, Amorebieta, Aduriz, and Aurtenexte are absent.
HJK Helsinki – Pelvas and Pohjanpalo are absent.
Sparta Prague – Krejci is absent.
Slovan Liberec – Stajner, Blazek, Delarge, and Rabusic are absent. Bosancic is a doubt.
Viktoria Plzen – Kolar, Pavlik, and Zeman are absent. Cisovsky and Malakjan are doubts.
Bursaspor – No absentees.
Trabzonspor – Zengin is absent.
Legia Warsaw – Vrdoljak is absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Cetnarski and Diaz are absent. Big internal conflicts at the club.
AIK Solna – Persson is absent.
CSKA Moscow – Doumbia and Necid are absent. Wernbloom is a doubt.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Akhmedov is absent. Zhirkov is a doubt.
Motherwell – Saunders and Ramsden are absent.
Rosenborg BK – Iversen is absent.
Molde FK – Stensild may return. Diouf has returned.
Internazionale – Stankovic, Alvarez, Cassano, and Mariga are absent.
Lazio – Brocchi, Ederson, Radu, and Diakite are absent. Dias is a doubt.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Tamuz, Yadin, Gordana, and Abutbul are absent.
Dinamo Bucharest – Galchev and Koulibaly are absent. Alvarez returns.
Steaua Bucharest – Rocha, Tanase, and Pintilii are absent.
Vaslui – No absentees. Players will be rotated as manager says he knows that they won’t progress.
Maritimo Funchal – Olberdam and Semedo are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Rinaudo, Viola, Onyewu, Pranjic, Izmailov, Vitor Golas, Pereirinha, and Wilson Eduardo are absent.
Hannover 96 – No absentees.
Club Brugge – Tchite is a doubt.
Racing Genk – Barda, Ayub, Simaeys, Joneleit, Kumordzi, and Hubert are absent.
Lokeren – No absentees. Neutral stadium in Brussels.
AZ Alkmaar – Ortiz and Messouad are absent.
Heerenveen – Finnbogason and Gouweleeuw are absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, Kuiper, and Boschker are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Pieters and Engelaar are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki – J.Halme, Antman, Ranta, Koskinen, Karkkainen, Kastrati, and Kibona are absent.
AC Oulu – Nurmos and Ojala are absent. Hietanen returns.
KooTeePee Kotka – Jammeh, Lomidze, and Wheeler are absent.
Hameenlinna – Hertsi is absent. Kalervo returns.
Spanish Super Cup:
Barcelona – Cuenca, Muniesa, Abidal, and Thiago Alcantara are absent.
Real Madrid – No absentees.